Americans disagree as to whether or not China poses a serious security concern for U.S. interests in peace and security in Asia and the Pacific. Many point to rising Chinese defense capabilities and assertive rhetoric to warn of Chinese military- backed expansion. Others judge that the main danger comes from China's weakness. They argue that the possibility of an emerging breakdown in government authority in China could prompt regional disorder and refugee flows seriously undermining Asian stability. Still others see the Chinese "threat" as grossly exaggerated. They stress that Beijing leaders are in control of the country and see their interests best served by accommodation to their richer and generally better armed neighbors.

Since the violent military crackdown around Tiananmen Square, most Western observers have struggled to understand and explain three major questions concerning the Chinese situation: first, why a forward-looking and reform-minded Chinese leadership chose such violent force over a more accommodating approach toward the peaceful public protests of June 1989; second, how to assess current political and economic conditions in China in light of Tiananmen Square; and third, what the events of the last two years mean for China's future prospects.