This report assesses the possibility of increased oil production from 21 less developed non-OPEC countries (excluding the Middle East and Mexico) by 1985. The forecast is compared with those prepared by the World Bank, the International Energy Agency, and others. The 21 Latin American, African, and Far East (including Asia) countries produce 2.5 million barrels of oil per day (BD) or 4.2% of world production, and they have 21 billion barrels of proved reserves, or 3.2% of the world total. In recent years these countries have consumed 3.1 million BD, some 0.9 million barrels in excess of their production. By 1985, the 21 countries may produce 3.9 million BD, an average annual increase of 5.0%; however, demand is expected to increase at an annual rate of 3.5% to 4.4 million BD. The net effect is that the 1985 aggregated supply-demand balance will be in deficit, by nearly 560 thousand BD, compared to slightly more than 930 thousand BD in 1976.

Deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia in 1990 was releasing approximately 281--282 X 10{sup 6} metric tons (MT) of carbon on conversion to a landscape of agriculture, productive pasture, degraded pasture, secondary forest and regenerated forest in the proportions corresponding to the equilibrium condition implied by current land-use patterns. Emissions are expressed as committed carbon,'' or the carbon released over a period of years as the carbon stock in each hectare deforested approaches a new equilibrium in the landscape that replaces the original forest. To the extent that deforestation rates have remained constant, current releases from the areas deforested in previous years will be equal to the future releases from the areas being cleared now. Considering the quantities of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, methane, nitrous oxide, NO{sub x} and non-methane hydrocarbons released raises the impact by 22--37%. The relative impact on the greenhouse effect of each gas is based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calculations over a 20-year time period (including indirect effects). The six gases considered have a combined global warming impact equivalent to 343 to 386 million MT of C0{sub 2}-equivalent carbon, depending on assumptions regarding the release of methane and other gases from the various sources …