NREL has developed and maintains a variety of infrastructure analysis models for the U.S. Department of Energy. Business case analysis has recently been added to this tool set. This presentation focuses on cash flow analysis. Cash flows depend upon infrastructure costs, optimized spatially and temporally, and assumptions about financing and revenue. NREL has incorporated detailed metrics on financing and incentives into the models. Next steps in modeling include continuing to collect feedback on regional/local infrastructure development activities and 'roadmap' dynamics, and incorporating consumer preference assumptions on infrastructure to provide direct feedback between vehicles and station rollout.

Prepared for the Clean Energy Regulatory Forum III, this presentation looks at the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study and reexamines the cost and emissions impacts of fossil fuel unit cycling.

Because most sedimentary basins have been explored for oil and gas, well logs, temperatures at depth, and reservoir properties such as depth to basement and formation thickness are well known. The availability of this data reduces exploration risk and allows development of geologic exploration models for each basin. This study estimates the magnitude of recoverable geothermal energy from 15 major known U.S. sedimentary basins and ranks these basins relative to their potential. The total available thermal resource for each basin was estimated using the volumetric heat-in-place method originally proposed by (Muffler, 1979). A qualitative recovery factor was determined for each basin based on data on flow volume, hydrothermal recharge, and vertical and horizontal permeability. Total sedimentary thickness maps, stratigraphic columns, cross sections, and temperature gradient information was gathered for each basin from published articles, USGS reports, and state geological survey reports. When published data were insufficient, thermal gradients and reservoir properties were derived from oil and gas well logs obtained on oil and gas commission databases. Basin stratigraphy, structural history, and groundwater circulation patterns were studied in order to develop a model that estimates resource size, temperature distribution, and a probable quantitative recovery factor.

This presentation summarizes findings of NREL's Renewable Electricity Futures study, published in June 2012. RE Futures investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050.

Regardless of cost and performance some wind projects are unable to proceed to commissioning as a result of deployment barriers. Principal deployment barriers in the industry today include: wildlife, public acceptance, access to transmission, and radar. To date, methods for understanding these non-technical barriers have failed to accurately characterize the costs imposed by deployment barriers and the degree of impact to the industry. Analytical challenges include limited data and modeling capabilities. Changes in policy and regulation, among other factors, also add complexity to analysis of impacts from deployment barriers. This presentation details preliminary results from new NREL analysis focused on quantifying the impact of deployment barriers on the wind resource of the United States, the installed cost of wind projects, and the total electric power system cost of a 20% wind energy future. In terms of impacts to wind project costs and developable land, preliminary findings suggest that deployment barriers are secondary to market drivers such as demand. Nevertheless, impacts to wind project costs are on the order of $100/kW and a substantial share of the potentially developable windy land in the United States is indeed affected by deployment barriers.