The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the third quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications.

The overall goal of this research is to develop a scheme to parameterize diabatic heating, moisture/water substance, and momentum transports, and precipitation from mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) for use in general circulation models (GCMs). Our approach is to perform explicit cloud-resolving simulations of MCSs in the spirit of the GEWEX Cloud Systems Study (GCSS), by using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) developed at Colorado State University (CSU). We then perform statistical analyses (conditional sampling, ensemble-averages, trajectory analyses) of simulated MCSs to assist in fabricating a parameterization scheme, calibrating coefficients, and provide independent tests of the efficacy of the parameterization scheme. A cloud-resolving simulation of ordinary cumulonimbi forced by sea breeze fronts has been completed. Analysis of this case and comparison with parameterized convection simulations has resulted in a number of refinements in the scheme. Three three-dimensional, cloud-resolving simulations of MCSs have been completed. Statistical analyses of model-output data are being performed to assist in developing a parameterization scheme of MCSs in general circulation models.

Preparation, characterization, and reactivity of ({eta}{sup 2}- alkyne)(meso-tetratolylpoprphrinato)titanium(II) complexes are described, along with inetermetal oxygen atom transfer reactions involving Ti(IV) and Ti(III) porphyrin complexes. The {eta}{sup 2}- alkyne complexes are prepared by reaction of (TTP)TiCl{sub 2} with LiAlH{sub 4} in presence of alkyne. Structure of (OEP)Ti({eta}{sup 2}-Ph-C{triple_bond}C-Ph) (OEP=octaethylporphryin) was determined by XRD. The compounds undergo simple substitution to displace the alkyne and produce doubly substituted complexes. Structure of (TTP)Ti(4-picoline){sub 2} was also determined by XRD. Reaction of (TTP)Ti{double_bond}O with (OEP)Ti-Cl yields intermetal O/Cl exchange, which is a one-electron redox process mediated by O atom transfer. Also a zero-electron redox process mediated by atom transfer is observed when (TTP)TiCl{sub 2} is reacted with (OEP)Ti{double_bond}O.

This is a brief report on the work done last year from November 1992 to October 1993. Out of the various areas of research proposed for the three-year period 1993--96, we have successfully carried out investigation in three topics: quark-hadron phase transition, hadron production, and multifractal structure. The results are summarized.