The surprise election of Socialist Party leader Tomiichi Murayama as Prime Minister on June 29, 1994, reflects an ongoing process of change and realignment in Japanese politics that, in the short term, has made the management of U.S.-Japan relations significantly more difficult and impeded the resolution of important issues. Although Murayama has pledged continuity in U.S.-Japan relations, and key cabinet posts have been given to senior LDP leaders with experience in dealing with Washington, his election could have a number of negative implications for U.S. interests. Among other possibilities, the change could temporarily set back the cause of political reform in Japan, further delay the recovery of the Japanese economy from a three-year long slump, pose new obstacles to trade negotiations aimed at more fully opening Japanese markets to U.S. goods and services, and bring into question Tokyo's cooperation under certain scenarios on the issue of North Korea's nuclear weapons program. The likely hiatus in major decisionmaking may continue at least until the next general election.

Japan's current political instability began in July 1993, when the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) -- in power since 1955 - was voted out and replaced by a fragile multiparty coalition government under Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa. The new government faced turmoil in April 1994, when Hosokawa suddenly resigned amid a personal financial scandal. Then-deputy prime minister/foreign minister Tsutomu Hata succeeded, but only at the head of a minority government after the Socialist party, a key coalition partner, quit the Hata coalition. Although beset by its own internal squabbles, the LDP remained the single largest party in Japan's bicameral Diet, or parliament. In late June, Hata was forced to resign under threat of an LDP-led no-confidence motion.