There have been varying estimates of the number of U.S. automobile dealerships that would be affected by the Administration's recently announced plan to impose a 100-percent tariff on imported Japanese luxury automobiles. This report examines the assumptions which result in some of the differences. also provides a State-by-State estimate of numbers of dealers potentially affected if the higher tariffs are imposed.

Over the past 30 years, U.S. trade negotiators have pressured Japan to open its market to foreign goods and services. These outside pressures, known as gaiatsu in Japan, have been based partly on economically coercive bargaining and partly on invitation. The coercive element, which has entailed threats of retaliatory market constriction should a satisfactory resolution of the market opening dispute not be forthcoming, generally has been a necessary ingredient in obtaining concessions from Japan. The invitational component, which has included requests for U.S. pressures from Japanese interests who favor reforms, generally has facilitated Japanese concessions and made the gaiatsu process unique.

On May 9, 1995, the United States initiated action designed to resolve a dispute with Japan dealing with automobiles and auto parts. In an effort to move negotiations along and resolve a U.S. unfair trade practices case (Section 301) dealing with barriers in the aftermarket for auto parts in Japan, the United States has threatened to impose 100 percent tariffs on imports of thirteen Japanese luxury passenger cars (Honda Acura, Nissan Infiniti, Toyota Lexus, Mazda 929 and Millenia, and Mitsubishi Diamante). The decision will be made by June 28, 1995. The United States also is pursuing a broad unfair trading case dealing with access to Japan's automotive market at the World Trade Organization. Japan, meanwhile, has also initiated a case at the WTO challenging the legality of the threatened increase in U.S. tariffs. Consultations under the WTO on these issues began in Geneva on June 12, 1995.