This paper presents a new technique--Integrated Bayesian Uncertainty Estimator (IBUNE) to account for the major uncertainties of hydrologic rainfall-runoff predictions explicitly. The uncertainties from the input (forcing) data--mainly the precipitation observations and from the model parameters are reduced through a Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) scheme named Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM) algorithm which has been extended to include a precipitation error model. Afterwards, the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) scheme is employed to further improve the prediction skill and uncertainty estimation using multiple model output. A series of case studies using three rainfall-runoff models to predict the streamflow in the Leaf River basin, Mississippi are used to examine the necessity and usefulness of this technique. The results suggests that ignoring either input forcings error or model structural uncertainty will lead to unrealistic model simulations and their associated uncertainty bounds which does not consistently capture and represent the real-world behavior of the watershed.

The authors describe searches for decays of B mesons to the charmless final states {eta}'{eta}'K. The data consist of 228 million B{bar B} pairs produced in e{sup +}e{sup -} annihilation, collected with the BABAR detector at the Stanford Linear Accelerator Center. The 90% confidence level upper limits for the branching fractions are {Beta}(B{sup 0} {yields} {eta}'{eta}'K{sup 0}) < 31 x 10{sup -6} and {Beta}(B{sup +} {yields} {eta}'{eta}'K{sup +}) < 25 x 10{sup -6}.

The overall purpose of this project is to evaluate the biological and economic feasibility of restoring high-quality forests on mined land, and to measure carbon sequestration and wood production benefits that would be achieved from forest restoration procedures. In this quarterly report we present data that show the spatial distribution of carbon in mine soils. Soil carbon data from deep soil pits from grassland minelands located in Ohio, Virginia, and West Virginia were analyzed to determine the vertical distribution and variability of soil organic carbon (SOC) down to a 2-m depth. Regression analyses were used to describe and model the distribution by soil depth of C(wt%), BD{sub fines}(g cm{sup -3}), and fines (vol%) in mine soils. The volume of excavated mine soil samples was transformed in terms of costs of digging and sampling, including sample collection and preparation, and C(wt%) analysis, in order to determine the maximum cost-effective depth (MCD) for carbon inventorying on the mined sites analyzed. Based on the horizontal variation of SOC(g m{sup -2}), we determined the sampling intensity required to achieve a desired accuracy of the amount of sequestered SOC(g m{sup -2}) at certain probability levels. The MCD and sampling intensity measurements were used to determine …

We perform a general study of primordial scalar non-Gaussianities in single field inflationary models. We consider models where the inflaton Lagrangian is an arbitrary function of the scalar field and its first derivative, and the sound speed is arbitrary. We find that under reasonable assumptions, the non-Gaussianity is completely determined by 5 parameters. In special limits of the parameter space, one finds distinctive ''shapes'' of the non-Gaussianity. In models with a small sound speed, several of these shapes would become potentially observable in the near future. Different limits of our formulae recover various previously known results.

Sub-Saharan Africa has been far more severely affected by AIDS than any other part of the world. The United Nations reports that 25.8 million adults and children are infected with the HIV virus in the region, which has about 11.3% of the world's population but more than 64% of the worldwide total of infected people. This report discusses this issue in detail, including the cause of the African AIDS epidemic, the social and economic consequences, response and treatment, and U.S. policy.

This report describes recent developments in Liberia, a small, poor West African country that is undergoing a post-conflict transition and peace-building process after its second civil war in a decade.

The House passed its version of the FY2007 defense authorization bill, H.R. 5122, on May 11. The bill authorizes $513 billion for national defense, including $50 billion in emergency funding for operations in Iraq and elsewhere in the first months of the fiscal year. The Senate Armed Services Committee marked up its version of the bill, S. 2766, on May 4. It also authorizes $513 billion, including emergency funding. Senate floor action appears likely in June. House subcommittee markup of the defense appropriations bill is tentatively scheduled for June 7.

The authors perform an analysis of the three-body charmless decay B{sup {+-}} {yields} K{sup {+-}}K{sup {+-}}K{sup {-+}} using a sample of 226.0 {+-} 2.5 million B{bar B} pairs collected by the BABAR detector and measure the total branching fraction and Cp asymmetry to be {beta} = (35.2 {+-} 0.9 {+-} 1.6) x 10{sup -6} and A{sub CP} = (-1.7 {+-} 2.6 {+-} 1.5)%. They fit the Dalitz plot distribution using an isobar model and report the measured values of magnitudes and phases of the production coefficients. The decay dynamics is dominated by the K{sup +}K{sup -} S-wave, for which we perform a partial-wave analysis in the region m(K{sup +}K{sup -}) < 2 GeV/c{sup 2}. They find no evidence of CP violation for individual components of the isobar model.

The Future Combat System (FCS) is the U.S. Army’s multiyear, multibillion dollar program at the heart of the Army’s transformation efforts. The FCS program exists in a dynamic national security environment which could significantly influence the program’s outcome. The FCS is experiencing a number of program development issues - with some technologies advancing quicker than anticipated, others progressing along predicted lines, while still others not meeting the Army’s expectations. Congress, in its authorization, appropriation, and oversight roles may wish to review the FCS program in terms of its capabilities and program costs.

None

Careful thermometric analysis (TMA) on powders of micron-sized triamino-trinitrobenzene (TATB) crystallites are shown to display irreversible growth in volume when subjected to repeated cycles of heating and cooling. Such behavior is counter-intuitive to typical materials response to simulated annealing cycles in atomic-scale molecular dynamics. However, through coarse-grained simulations using a mesoscale Hamiltonian we quantitatively reproduce irreversible growth behavior in such powdered material. We demonstrate that irreversible growth happens only in the presence of intrinsic crystalline anisotropy, and is mediated by particles much smaller than the average crystallite size.

We present a mechanism for catalyzed vacuum bubble production obtained by combining moduli stabilization with a generalized attractor phenomenon in which moduli are sourced by compact objects. This leads straightforwardly to a class of examples in which the Hawking decay process for black holes unveils a bubble of a different vacuum from the ambient one, generalizing the new endpoint for Hawking evaporation discovered recently by Horowitz. Catalyzed vacuum bubble production can occur for both charged and uncharged bodies, including Schwarzschild black holes for which massive particles produced in the Hawking process can trigger vacuum decay. We briefly discuss applications of this process to the population and stability of metastable vacua.

This report contains a summary of Argentina's sovereign debt and the resolving of its sovereign defaults.

None

This paper provides an introduction for non-experts to first-principles electronic structure methods that are widely used in condensed-matter physics. Particular emphasis is placed on giving the appropriate background information needed to better appreciate the use of these methods to study actinide and other materials. Specifically, I describe the underlying theory sufficiently to enable an understanding of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the methods. I also explain the meaning of commonly used terminology, including density functional theory (DFT), local density approximation (LDA), and generalized gradient approximation (GGA), as well as linear muffin-tin orbital (LMTO), linear augmented plane wave (LAPW), and pseudopotential methods. I also briefly discuss methodologies that extend the basic theory to address specific limitations. Finally, I describe a few illustrative applications, including quantum molecular dynamics (QMD) simulations and studies of surfaces, impurities, and defects. I conclude by addressing the current controversy regarding magnetic calculations for actinide materials.

This report begins with an inventory of basic information: definitions and guides to histories of the growth of open access publishing and citation archives and descriptions of selected major open access activities. It moves on to summarize major points of difference between proponents and opponents of nongovernmental open access publishing and databases, and then highlights federal, including National Institutes of Health (NIH), open access activities and contentious issues surrounding these developments. The report also briefly describes open access developments in the United Kingdom (where a number of governmental and nongovernmental initiatives have occurred) and in the international arena. Finally, controversial issues which could receive attention in the 109th Congress are summarized.

None

Digital television (DTV) is a new television service representing the most significant development in television technology since the advent of color television in the 1950s. DTV can provide sharper pictures, a wider screen, CD-quality sound, better color rendition, and other new services currently being developed. This report discusses a key issue in the Congressional debate over the digital transition has been addressing the millions of American over-the-air households whose existing analog televisions will require converter boxes in order to receive digital signals when the analog signal is turned off.

This report discusses the Health Savings Accounts (HSAs), which are one way that people can pay for their unreimbursed medical expenses (deductibles, copayments, and services not covered by insurance) on a tax-advantaged basis

The 9/11 Commission Report recommended that 911 call centers — also called Public Safety Answering Points, or PSAPs — be included in planning for emergency responses.1 Congress, which has since 1999 passed two bills to further the deployment of 911, is reviewing ways to expand 911 capabilities and make it more accessible and effective. Congress is also evaluating ways to improve emergency alerts2 and interoperable communications for public safety.3 Operational convergence of emergency communications seems to many to be inevitable, a question of “when,” not “if.” This report deals primarily with 911 and its recent history. It also summarizes some of the proposals that would improve 911 through new approaches and integration with other services.

We evaluate the Scanwell Time Alignment Probe for performing the timing calibration for the LBNL Prostate-Specific PET Camera. We calibrate the time delay correction factors for each detector module in the camera using two methods--using the Time Alignment Probe (which measures the time difference between the probe and each detector module) and using the conventional method (which measures the timing difference between all module-module combinations in the camera). These correction factors, which are quantized in 2 ns steps, are compared on a module-by-module basis. The values are in excellent agreement--of the 80 correction factors, 62 agree exactly, 17 differ by 1 step, and 1 differs by 2 steps. We also measure on-time and off-time counting rates when the two sets of calibration factors are loaded into the camera and find that they agree within statistical error. We conclude that the performance using the Time Alignment Probe and conventional methods are equivalent.

Borehole seismology is the highest resolution geophysical imaging technique available today to the oil and gas industry for characterization and monitoring of oil and gas reservoirs. However, the industry's ability to economically do high resolution 3D imaging of deep and complex gas reservoirs using borehole seismology is currently hampered by the lack of the acquisition technology necessary to record the large volumes of the high frequency, high signal-to-noise-ratio borehole seismic data needed to do 3D imaging. This project takes direct aim at this shortcoming by developing a 400 level 3C clamped downhole seismic receiver array, and accompanying software, for borehole seismic 3D imaging. This large borehole seismic array will remove the technical acquisition barrier for recording the necessary volumes of data to do high resolution 3D VSP or 3D cross well seismic imaging. Massive 3D VSP{reg_sign} and long range Cross-Well Seismology (CWS) are two of the borehole seismic techniques that will allow the Gas industry to take the next step in their quest for higher resolution images of the gas reservoirs for the purpose of improving the recovery of the natural gas resources. Today only a fraction of the original Oil or Gas in place is produced when reservoirs are …

An electromagnetic solenoid was developed to study the quenching of nonlocal heat transport in laser-produced gas-jet plasmas by high external magnetic fields. The solenoid, which is driven by a pulsed power system supplying 30 kJ, achieves fields exceeding 10 T. Temporally resolved measurements of the electron temperature profile transverse to a high power laser beam were obtained using Thomson Scattering. A method for optimizing the solenoid design based on the available stored energy is presented.

The demand for increased efficiency of gas turbines used in power generation and aircraft applications has fueled research into advanced materials for gas turbine blades that can withstand higher temperatures in that they have excellent resistance to creep. The term ''Superalloys'' describes a group of alloys developed for applications that require high performance at elevated temperatures. Superalloys have a load bearing capacity up to 0.9 times their melting temperature. The objective of the investigation was to develop a thermodynamic model that can be used to describe the response of single crystal superalloys that takes into account the microstructure of the alloy within the context of a continuum model. Having developed the model, its efficacy was to be tested by corroborating the predictions of the model with available experimental data. Such a model was developed and it is implemented in the finite element software ABAQUS/STANDARD through a user subroutine (UMAT) so that the model can be used in realistic geometries that correspond to turbine blades.