While the Arab Spring has resulted in numerous different political outcomes across the Arab world, conventional theories of democratization are lacking in explaining these divergent outcomes. Developing a theory of democratization, strategic importance and external intervention, I examine the relationship between national strategic importance and democratization. I argue that strategically important states will be targeted by external actors in attempts to stifle or thwart democracy because democracy may upset the status quo that foreign actors benefit from. I do not find support for the hypothesis that strategic importance and democratization share a general negative relationship, however, I find moderate support that strategic importance is related to the timing of regime breakdown, democratic breakdown and democratic transition. Furthermore, in examining the cases of Bahrain, Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, I highlight key moments of external intervention and influence that impacted the democratization attempts of each case.