The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of the "limits of arbitrage" on securities mispricing. Specifically, I investigate the effect of the availability of substitutes and financial constraints on stock mispricing. In addition, this study investigates the difference in the limits of arbitrage, in the sense that it will lead to lower mispricing for these stocks, relative to non-S&P 500 stocks. I also examine if the lower mispricing can be attributed to their lower limits of arbitrage. Modern finance theory and efficient market hypothesis suggest that security prices, at equilibrium, should reflect their fundamental value. If the market price deviates from the intrinsic value, then a risk-free profit opportunity has emerged and arbitrageurs will eliminate mispricing and equilibrium is restored. This arbitrage process is characterized by large number of arbitrageurs which have infinite access to capital. However, a better description of reality is that there are few numbers of arbitrageurs to the extent that they are highly specialized; and they have limited access to capital. Under these condition arbitrage is no more a risk-free activity and can be limited by several factors such as arbitrage risk and transaction costs. Other factors that are discussed in the literature …

Do firms with higher levels of innovation output, measured by patent counts and citations, enjoy lower costs of funds? The process to develop and apply for patents involves valuable resources. Thus, applying for a patent is a credible signal that the underlying invention is valuable. This value is validated to some degree when the patent is granted. In addition, patents contain detailed information about the firm's inventions and provide collateral value as they can be sold and licensed. The number of citations a firm receives act as a proxy for high-quality inventions, active networking, and pioneering. These attributes are expected to attract investors and reduce the cost of funds. Univariate and cross-sectional regression analyses of a sample consisting of 404,595 firm-years, involving firms from twenty-eight countries spanning from 1976 to 2012, demonstrate a significant negative association between innovation output and the cost of funds. The evidence suggests that the marginal benefit of innovation diminishes as innovation output increases. The results are robust to different measures of the cost of equity and the cost of debt. The negative association between the cost of equity and innovation output is economically larger for younger and smaller firms. The long-term level of innovation seems …

Several studies have observed that stocks tend to drop by an amount that is less than the dividend on the ex-dividend day, the so-called ex-dividend day anomaly. However, there still remains a lack of consensus for a single explanation of this anomaly. Different from other studies, this dissertation attempts to answer the primary research question: How can investors make trading profits from the ex-dividend day anomaly and how much can they earn? With this goal, I examine the economic motivations of equity investors through four main hypotheses identified in the anomaly’s literature: the tax differential hypothesis, the short-term trading hypothesis, the tick size hypothesis, and the leverage hypothesis. While the U.S. ex-dividend anomaly is well studied, I examine a long data window (1975 to 2010) of Thailand data. The unique structure of the Thai stock market allows me to assess all four main hypotheses proposed in the literature simultaneously. Although I extract the sample data from two data sources, I demonstrate that the combined data are consistently sampled. I further construct three trading strategies: “daily return,” “lag one daily return,” and “weekly return” to alleviate the potential effect of irregular data observation. I find that the ex-dividend day anomaly exists …

The objective of this study is to answer the following research question: How large is a diversified portfolio? Although previous work is abundant, very little progress has been made in answering this question since the seminal work of Evans and Archer (1968). This study proposes two approaches to address the research question. The first approach is to measure the rate of risk reduction as diversification increases. For the first approach, I identify two kinds of risks: (1) risk that portfolio returns vary across time (Evans and Archer (1968), and Campbell et al. (2001)); and (2) risk that returns vary across portfolios of the same size (Elton and Gruber (1977), and O'Neil (1997)). I show that the times series risk reaches an asymptote as portfolio size increases. Cross sectional risk, on the other hand, does not appears to reach an asymptote as portfolio size increases. The second approach consists of comparing portfolios' performance to a benchmark portfolio that is assumed to be diversified (Statman (1987)). I develop a performance index. The performance index is calculated, for any given test portfolio, as the ratio of the Sharpe-like measure of the test portfolio to the Sharpe-like measure of the benchmark portfolio that is …

Three petroleum futures contracts are examined over a ten-year period from 1986 to 1996. Intertemporal changes in futures prices and the net open interest positions of three trader types are compared to determine what, if any, market timing ability the traders have. Seasonal variation is considered and a simple trading rule is adopted to determine the dollar-return potential for market participation and shed light on issues of market efficiency.

Baker and Wurgler (2002) define a new theory of capital structure. In this theory capital structure evolves as the cumulative outcome of past attempts to time the equity market. Baker and Wurgler extend market timing theory to long-term capital structure, but their results do not clearly distinguish between the two versions of market timing: perceived mispricing and adverse selection. The main purpose of this dissertation is to empirically identify the relative importance of these two explanations. First, I retest Baker and Wurgler's theory by using insider trading as an alternative to market-to-book ratio to measure equity market timing. I also formally test the adverse selection model of the equity market timing: first by using post-issuance performance, and then by using three measures of adverse selection. The first two measures use estimates of adverse information costs based on the bid and ask prices, and the third measure is based on the close-to-offer returns. Based on received theory, a dynamic adverse selection model implies that higher adverse information costs lead to higher leverage. On the other hand, a naïve adverse selection model implies that negative inside information leads to lower leverage. The results are consistent with the equity market timing theory of …

This dissertation is structured as three essays on real estate investment trusts and financial markets. It addresses the financial performance and systematic risk of different REIT types, the information content of REIT bankruptcies, and the effect of recent tax law changes on the REIT industry.

This study examines the reactions of market makers and investors to large dividend increases to identify the motives for dividend increases. Uniquely, this study simultaneously tests the signaling and agency abatement motivations as explanations of the impact of dividend increases on stock prices and bid-ask spreads. The agency abatement hypothesis argues that increased dividends constrict management's future behavior, abating the agency problem with shareholders. The signaling hypothesis asserts that dividend increases signal that managers expect higher or more stable cash flows in the future. Mean stock price responses to dividend increase announcements during 1995 are examined over both short ( _1, 0) and long ( _1, 504) windows. Changes in bid-ask spreads are examined over a short ( _1, 0) window and an intermediate (81 day) period. This study partitions dividend increases into a sample motivated by agency abatement and a sample motivated by cash flow signaling. Further, this study examines the agency abatement and cash flow signaling explanations of relative bid-ask spread responses to announcements of dividend increases. Estimated generalized least squares models of market reactions to sampled events support the agency abatement hypothesis over the cash flow signaling hypothesis as a motive for large dividend increases as measured …

Corporate governance issues have become increasingly important to financial managers and shareholders. Firms that are plagued by poor performance, incompetent managers, or excess agency costs have become the subject of a dramatic increase in shareholder activism. Dissident shareholders, who are unable to launch costly takeover bids or proxy contests, have initiated a process of governance reform through the use of shareholder sponsored proposals. Shareholder proposals are a direct attempt to reverse operating or voting policies, such as a proposal to repeal a classified board. Managers announce shareholder proposals in a proxy statement and typically include a vote recommendation against the proposal. In the first essay, I find an unfavorable stock price reaction to the announcement of a shareholder proposal. In some cases, however, management supports the proposal and negotiates an agreement with the proposing shareholder. Stock prices react favorably to a settlement announcement. If managers are willing to negotiate with shareholders, they are perceived to be acting in the best interest of shareholders. If managers are unwilling, shareholders believe a severe agency problem exists. In the second essay, the effect that ownership structure has on voting outcomes of shareholder proposals is examined. I find a direct relationship between the percentage …

Most initial public offerings (IPOs) feature share lockup agreements, which prohibit insiders from selling their shares for a specified period of time following the IPO. However, some IPO firms agree to have a much longer lockup period than other IPO firms, and some are willing to lockup a much larger proportion of shares. Thus, the primary research question for this study is: "What are the reasons for the divergence of the lockup agreements?" The two main hypotheses that this dissertation investigates are the signaling hypothesis based on information asymmetry, and the commitment hypothesis based on agency theory. This study uses methods that have not been applied by previous studies in the literature relating to IPO lockups. First, I directly use IPO firms operating performance as a proxy for firm quality. The results show neither a negative nor a strong positive relationship between lockup length and firm operating performance. Thus, based on operating performance, the evidence does not support the agency hypothesis while showing weak support for the signaling hypothesis. I then examine the long-run returns for IPO firms with different lockup lengths. I find that firms with short lockup lengths have much better long-run returns than firms with long lockup …

There is a limited amount of research dealing with the wealth effects of sale-and-leaseback transactions, but previous research has focused predominantly on the tax effects of these transactions. The results of these studies have often been in conflict with one another. This dissertation shows that tax effects do play a role in determining the wealth effect of sale-and-leasebacks on stockholders, but there exists a framework of finance research that suggests several other factors could play a determining role as well.

The research questions investigated are: 1. Are the expected post-issue fractional holdings of the directors and officers, venture capitalists and institutions signals of firm value? 2. Are the expected post-issue fractional holdings of the directors and officers, venture capitalists and institutions signals of underpricing? and 3. Are the directors and officers, venture capitalists and institutions monitors of IPO investments? The signaling theory developed by Grinblatt and Hwang (1989) (GH) and the monitoring theory for IPO investments have been used to develop the hypotheses for this dissertation. Four factors make my methodology unique. These factors are: 1. I apply and test the GH IPO signaling model over a unique data set collected from the IPO prospectuses, proxy statements and annual reports; 2. I disaggregate the expected post-issue holdings of the different groups of pre-issue blockholders and insiders and hypothesizes that these individual groups represents signals of firm value and underpricing; 3. I hypothesize that these groups, in aggregate and separately, monitor IPO investments over the long term; And 4. I develop signaling and monitoring hypotheses to make predictions at the two stages of the IPO. The results show that firm value is positively related to the level of underpricing, at a …

Bankruptcy is a costly event. Holders of publicly traded securities can rely on security prices to reflect their risk. Other stakeholders have no such mechanism. Hence, methods for accurately forecasting bankruptcy would be valuable to them. A large body of literature has arisen on bankruptcy forecasting with statistical classification since Beaver (1967) and Altman (1968). Reported total error rates typically are 10%-20%, suggesting that these models reveal information which otherwise is unavailable and has value after financial data is released. This conflicts with evidence on market efficiency which indicates that securities markets adjust rapidly and actually anticipate announcements of financial data. Efforts to resolve this conflict with event study methodology have run afoul of market model specification difficulties. A different approach is taken here. Most extant criticism of research design in this literature concerns inferential techniques but not sampling design. This paper attempts to resolve major sampling design issues. The most important conclusion concerns the usual choice of the individual firm as the sampling unit. While this choice is logically inconsistent with how a forecaster observes financial data over time, no evidence of bias could be found. In this paper, prediction performance is evaluated in terms of expected loss. Most …

My dissertation consists of two essays on CFOs' promotion-based tournament incentives and performance-based equity incentives. The first essay examines the joint implications of CFOs' tournament incentives and equity incentives for firms' risk-taking. With the pay gap between the CEO and the CFO as the proxy for the CFO's tournament incentives, I find that the relationship between a firm's risk taking and the CFO's tournament incentives is non-monotonic. In particular, I show that below a certain level, increase in pay gap is associated with increase in firm risk taking (e.g., higher leverage, lower cash holding balance and higher R&D intensity). However, after reaching a certain level, the CEO-CFO pay gap negatively impacts risk-taking, as increase in pay gap is associated with lower leverage, higher cash holding balance and lower R&D intensity. With the CFO's pay-performance sensitivity as the proxy for the CFO's equity incentives, I find that the CFO's equity incentives negatively impact firm's R&D intensity, but have no significant impact on broader financial decisions such as capital structure and cash policy. Collectively, my findings indicate that CFO incentives play an important role in firm's risk-taking behaviors, and the effect of the CFO's tournament incentives is more pronounced. The second essay …

In a 2004 study, Harvey, Lin and Roper argue that debt makers with a commitment to monitoring can create value for outside shareholders whenever information asymmetry and agency costs are pronounced. I investigate Harvey, Lin and Roper's claim for bank loans by empirically testing the effect of information asymmetry and direct agency costs on the abnormal returns of the borrowers' stock around the announcement of bank loans. I divide my study into two main sections. The first section tests whether three proxies of the direct agency costs of equity are equally significant in measuring the direct costs associated with outside equity agency problems. I find that the asset utilization ratio proxy is the most statistically significant proxy of the direct agency costs of equity using a Chow F-test statistic. The second main section of my dissertation includes and event study and a cross-sectional analysis. The event study results document significant and positive average abnormal returns of 1.01% for the borrowers' stock on the announcement day of bank loans. In the cross sectional analysis of the borrowers' average abnormal stock returns, I find that higher quality and more reputable banks/lenders provide a reliable certification to the capital market about the low …

This dissertation consists of three essays: essay 1, Underwriting Use of Credit Information and Firm Performance ‐ An Empirical Study of Texas Property‐Liability Insurers, essay 2, Prediction of Ratings in Property‐Liability Industry when The Organizational Form Is Endogenous, and essay 3, A Discussion of Parsimonious Methods Predicting Insurance Companies Ratings. The purpose of the first essay is to investigate the influence of underwriting use of credit information on variation in insurers’ underwriting performance. Specifically, this study addresses the following two research questions: first, what firm‐level characteristics are associated with the insurers’ decision to use credit information in underwriting? second, is there a relationship between the use of credit information and variation in insurers’ underwriting performance? The empirical results indicate that larger insurance companies, companies having more business in personal auto insurance, and those with greater use of reinsurance are more likely to use credit information in underwriting. More importantly, the results indicate that use of credit information is associated with lower variation in underwriting performance, consistent with the hypothesis that use of credit information enables insurers to better predict their losses. The purpose of the second essay is to resolve the inconsistent relationship between the organizational forms (i.e., stock versus …

Standard and Poor's began publication of Credit Watch in November of 1981 as an early warning list for firms whose debt is under review for a possible rating change. This dissertation is composed of three essays which address various aspects of Credit Watch and the impact on shareholder wealth. The first essay uses a discriminant analysis model to classify the Credit Watch status of firms which engaged in mergers and acquisitions activity in 1991. The model correctly classifies 69.85% of the in-sample firms and 65.83% of the out of sample firms. The second essay examines whether the stock market reacts more strongly to trigger events which cause Credit Watch placements than to the actual placement. Significantly larger negative abnormal return are found around the trigger event than the placement. No evidence is found for the differential reaction evolving over time. The third essay examines firm specific and economy-wide factors which may be related to the strength of the abnormal stock return around the Credit Watch removal date. The removal return is found to be positively related to the number of trading days a firm remains on Credit Watch, negatively related to the number of updates regarding the firm released by …

The effect of a change in capital structure on the risk and return of common stockholders is investigated. Also, the information content of dividends when a firm goes for new outside financing is examined. Data used in the study are collected from the Moody's Bond Survey, the Prentice Hall's Capital Adjustments, the Wall Street Journal Index, and the Center for Research in Security Prices Tape. The study uses an event study methodology. The risk (beta) of common stock before an issuance of debt securities is compared with the risk after the issue. The stock market reaction to the issuance of new debt securities is measured using after-the-event risk. The information content of dividend announcement before a new debt issue is compared to that of after the issue. The findings show that debt issue reduces stock holders' risk if the issuer is a dividend paying company. Also, debt securities issued through an exchange offer increase stockholders' wealth. Finally, issuance of new debt does not affect the information content of dividends.

This study examines the impact of reducing tick size and, in particular decimalization on stock splits. Based on previous studies, this study examines hypotheses in the following three areas: first, market reaction around stock split announcement and ex-dates, second, the effect of tick size on liquidity after stock split ex-dates, and third, the effect of tick size on return volatility after stock split ex-dates. The impact of tick size on market reaction around split announcement and ex-dates is measured by abnormal returns and buy and hold abnormal returns (BHARs). Also, this study investigates the long term impact of decimalization on market reaction for small, medium, and large firms for the three different tick size periods. The effect of tick size on liquidity after stock split ex-dates is measured by turnover, relative bid ask spread, and market maker count. The effect of tick size on return volatility around stock split announcement and ex-dates is measured by return standard deviation. Also, this study investigates the long term impact of decimalization on volatility after split ex-dates for small, medium, and large firms for three different tick size periods.

Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator, Inc. (MISO) is a non-profit regional transmission organization (RTO) that oversees electricity production and transmission across thirteen states and one Canadian province. MISO also operates an electronic exchange for buying and selling electricity for each of its five regional hubs. MISO oversees two types of markets. The forward market, which is referred to as the day-ahead (DA) market, allows market participants to place demand bids and supply offers on electricity to be delivered at a specified hour the following day. The equilibrium price, known as the locational marginal price (LMP), is determined by MISO after receiving sale offers and purchase bids from market participants. MISO also coordinates a spot market, which is known as the real-time (RT) market. Traders in the real-time market must submit bids and offers by thirty minutes prior to the hour for which the trade will be executed. After receiving purchase and sale offers for a given hour in the real time market, MISO then determines the LMP for that particular hour. The existence of the DA and RT markets allows producers and retailers to hedge against the large fluctuations that are common in electricity prices. Hedge ratios on the MISO …

Monthly returns on twenty-seven Eurobonds from July 1982 to June 1986 were examined. There were no consistent differences in returns based on the country in which a firm is located. There were consistent differences due to industry classification, with energy-related firms exhibiting higher average returns and variances. Excess returns were calculated using the capital asset pricing model and arbitrage pricing theory. The results from calculation of mean average deviation, root mean square, and R2 all indicate that the arbitrage pricing theory was a better descriptor of the Eurobond market. The excess returns were also examined using stochastic dominance. Arbitrage pricing theory never dominated the capital asset pricing model using first-order criteria, but consistently dominated using second-order criteria. The results were discussed in terms of the implications for investors and portfolio managers.

The initial matching relationships between underwriters and bonds/issuing firms and the certification quality of underwriters, as determined by changes in the issuing firm’s financial strength post issue, are the two primary research topics in this dissertation. Based on total underwriter syndicate market share, two distinct categories, low market power (LMP) syndicates and high market power (HMP) syndicates were defined. Firm financial strength is examined based on a new factor developed in this research. A comparison of the two underwriting categories, or pools, indicates that the HMP underwriters take on firms of lower initial financial strength and additionally, the issuing firms decline more in financial strength two years following bond issuance than do firms using LMP underwriters. Notwithstanding these results, the more interesting findings are the relationships within each of these pools. In the LMP pool of underwriters, financially stronger firms used the larger LMPs to underwrite their bonds, while the weaker firms used smaller LMPs. In contrast, among HMP underwriters, the largest HMPs aligned with the firms of relatively lower financial strength. The relationships in both pools reverse when changes in financial strength are examined. Larger LMPs are associated with greater issuing firm financial decline while larger HMPs correlate with …

Using 1,473 going private transactions completed between 1985 and 2007, I assess whether the increase in going private transactions that occurred after the passage of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX) was driven by SOX, or whether this phenomenon continues an ongoing historical trend. To examine this issue, I initially used structural break tests and intervention analysis. From the initial techniques, I find support that the passage of SOX increased going private transactions for these categories. Secondarily, I use Granger causality tests and impulse response functions to examine the link between going private transactions and the public stock market. When I categorize going private transactions according to the type of acquirer, transaction size, and target industry, I find bi-directional Granger causality relationships between smaller-sized going private transactions and the S&P 500 Index (or Tobin's Q). I also find several unidirectional Granger causality relationships for some categories of going private transactions, based on the type of acquirer or the target industry, to the S&P 500 Index (or to Tobin's Q). The impulse response of going private transactions (or the public stock market) to a shock in the public stock market (or going private transactions) is not immediate, but is delayed two …

Unique and proprietary data of the illiquid, one-year non cancelable for three month Bermudan swaps (1Y NC 3M swaps) and one-year non callable for three months Bermudan CDs (1Y NC 3M CDs), provides evidence of market efficiency. The 1Y NC 3M swap and 1Y NC 3M CD markets efficiently reflected unexpected economic information. The 1Y NC 3M swaption premiums also followed the European one-year into three-month (1Y into 3M) swaption volatilities. Swaption premiums were computed by pricing non-optional instruments using the quoted 1Y NC 3M swap rates and the par value swap rates and taking the difference between them. Swaption premiums ranged from a slight negative premium to a 0.21 percent premium. The average swaption premium during the study period was 0.02 percent to 0.04 percent. The initial swaption premiums were over 0.20 percent while the final swaption premiums were 0.02 percent to 0.04 percent. Premiums peaked and waned throughout the study period depending on market uncertainty as reflected in major national economic announcements, Federal Reserve testimonies and foreign currency devaluations. Negative swaption premiums were not necessarily irrational or quoting errors. Frequently, traders obligated to provide market quotes to customers do not have an interest and relay that lack of …