In this work, we focus on enhancing the efficacy of predictive modeling in operational management decision making in two different settings: Essay 1 focuses on demand forecasting for the companies and the second study utilizes longitudinal data to analyze the illicit drug seizure and overdose deaths in the United States. In Essay 1, we utilize an operational system (newsvendor model) to evaluate the forecast method outcome and provide guidelines for forecast method (the exponential smoothing model) performance assessment and judgmental adjustments. To assess the forecast outcome, we consider not only the common forecast error minimization approach but also the profit maximization at the end of the forecast horizon. Including profit in our assessment enables us to determine if error minimization always results in maximum profit. We also look at the different levels of profit margin to analyze their impact on the forecasting method performance. Our study also investigates how different demand patterns influence maximizing the forecasting method performance. Our study shows that the exponential smoothing model family has a better performance in high-profit products, and the rate of decrease in performance versus demand uncertainty is higher in a stationary demand environment.In the second essay, we focus on illicit drug overdose …

Customer relationship management (CRM), a primary activity in the business value chain to relate to the customer, involves solicitation, analysis, and the use of the knowledge about the customer to provide goods and services through effective and efficient methods. It is a wise strategy and source of competitive advantage for customer behavior understanding and business performance management. The use of information technology (IT) in CRM allows companies to simplify their processes, to integrate product or service related decision making with the business strategies, and to optimize their operations by embracing analytical techniques. The insurance industry is facing unprecedented challenges and decisions in this data-driven business paradigm. It is a strategic necessity for customer-centric insurers to utilize emerging IT capability to support interactions between customers and business operations. The research in the dissertation seeks to provide insights into the application of early technology innovation and data-driven strategies by investigating the following two groups of CRM technology issues: technology adoption and data-driven technology application. Through three essays, the dissertation explores the use of information technology and data analytical tools to provide insight into how automobile insurance companies make decisions regarding their relationships with their customers. The results from these studies provide a …