The objective of the research reported in this dissertation is to conduct an empirical test of the hypothesis that, excluding income tax effects, the cost of capital to a firm is independent of the degree of financial leverage employed by the firm. This hypothesis, set forth by Franco Modigliani and Merton Miller in 1958, represents a challenge to the traditional view on the subject, a challenge which carries implications of considerable importance in the field of finance. The challenge has led to a lengthy controversy which can ultimately be resolved only by subjecting the hypothesis to empirical test. The basis of the test was Modigliani and Miller's Proposition II, a corollary of their fundamental hypothesis. Proposition II, in effect, states that equity investors fully discount any increase in risk due to financial leverage so that there is no possibility for the firm to reduce its cost of capital by employing financial leverage. The results of the research reported in this dissertation do not support that contention. The study indicates that, if equity investors require any increase in premium for increasing financial leverage, the premium required is significantly less than that predicted by the Modigliani-Miller Proposition II, over the range of …

The cycle regression analysis algorithm is the most recent addition to a group of techniques developed to detect "hidden periodicities." This dissertation investigates four major aspects of the algorithm. The objectives of this research are 1. To develop an objective method of obtaining an initial estimate of the cycle period? the present procedure of obtaining this estimate involves considerable subjective judgment; 2. To validate the algorithm's success in extracting cycles from multi-cylical data; 3. To determine if a consistent relationship exists among the smallest amplitude, the error standard deviation, and the number of replications of a cycle contained in the data; 4. To investigate the behavior of the algorithm in the predictions of major drops.

This dissertation describes the effect that the construction of frequency tables has on basic statistics computed from those frequency tables. It is directly applicable only to normally distributed data summarized by Sturges' Rule. The purpose of this research was to identify factors tending to bias sample statistics when data are summarized, and thus to allow researchers to avoid such bias. The methodology employed was a large scale simulation where 1000 replications of samples of size n = 2 ᵏ⁻¹ for 2 to 12 were drawn from a normally distributed population with a mean of zero and a standard deviation of one. A FORTRAN IV source listing is included. The report concludes that researchers should avoid the use of statistics computed from frequency tables in cases where raw data are available. Where the use of such statistics is unavoidable, the researchers can eliminate their bias by the use of empirical correction factors provided in the paper. Further research is suggested to determine the effect of summarization of data drawn from various non-normal distributions.

This research was designed to develop and evaluate an automated alternative to the Box-Jenkins method of forecasting. The study involved two major phases. The first phase was the formulation of an automated ARIMA method; the second was the combination of forecasts from the automated ARIMA with forecasts from two other automated methods, the Holt-Winters method and the Stepwise Autoregressive method. The development of the automated ARIMA, based on a decision criterion suggested by Akaike, borrows heavily from the work of Ang, Chuaa and Fatema. Seasonality and small data set handling were some of the modifications made to the original method to make it suitable for use with a broad range of time series. Forecasts were combined by means of both the simple average and a weighted averaging scheme. Empirical and generated data were employed to perform the forecasting evaluation. The 111 sets of empirical data came from the M-Competition. The twenty-one sets of generated data arose from ARIMA models that Box, Taio and Pack analyzed using the Box-Jenkins method. To compare the forecasting abilities of the Box-Jenkins and the automated ARIMA alone and in combination with the other two methods, two accuracy measures were used. These measures, which are free …

This study compared the results of his chi square text of independence and the corrected chi square statistic against Fisher's exact probability test (the hypergeometric distribution) in contection with sampling from a finite population. Data were collected by advancing the minimum call size from zero to a maximum which resulted in a tail area probability of 20 percent for sample sizes from 10 to 100 by varying increments. Analysis of the data supported the rejection of the null hypotheses regarding the general rule-of-thumb guidelines concerning sample size, minimum cell expected frequency and the continuity correction factor. it was discovered that the computation using Yates' correction factor resulted in values which were so overly conservative (i.e. tail area porobabilities that were 20 to 50 percent higher than Fisher's exact test) that conclusions drawn from this calculation might prove to be inaccurate. Accordingly, a new correction factor was proposed which eliminated much of this discrepancy. Its performance was equally consistent with that of the uncorrected chi square statistic and at times, even better.

The purpose of this dissertation was to create a safety compliance model which would advance the state of the art of safety compliance models and provide management with a practical tool which can be used in making safety decisions in an environment where multiple objectives exist. A goal programming safety compliance model (OSHA Model) was developed to fulfill this purpose. The objective function of the OSHA Model was designed to minimize the total deviation from the established goals of the model. These model goals were expressed in terms of 1) level of compliance to OSHA safety and health regulations, 2) company accident frequency rate, 3) company accident cost per worker, and 4) a company budgetary restriction. This particular set of goals was selected to facilitate management's fulfillment of its responsibilities to OSHA, the employees, and to ownership. This study concludes that all the research objectives have been accomplished. The OSHA Model formulated not only advances the state of the art of safety compliance models, but also provides a practical tool which facilitates management's safety and health decisions. The insight into the relationships existing in a safety compliance decision system provided by the OSHA Model and its accompanying sensitivity analysis was …

The purpose of this research was to develop parametric Design-to-Cost models for selected major subsystems of certain helicopters. This was accomplished by analyzing the relationships between historical production costs and certain design parameters which are available during the preliminary design phase of the life cycle. Several potential contributions are identified in the areas of academia, government, and industry. Application of the cost models will provide estimates beneficial to the government and DoD by allowing derivation of realistic Design-to-Cost estimates. In addition, companies in the helicopter industry will benefit by using the models for two key purposes: (1) optimizing helicopter design through cost-effective tradeoffs, and (2) justifying a proposal estimate.

This study compared the results for McNemar's test, the t test for related measures, and the chi-square test of independence as cell sized varied in a two-by-two frequency table. In this study. the probability results for McNemar's rest, the t test for related measures, and the chi-square test of independence were compared for 13,310 different combinations of cell sizes in a two-by-two design. Several conclusions were reached: With very few exceptions, the t test for related measures and McNemar's test yielded probability results within .002 of each other. The chi-square test seemed to equal the other two tests consistently only when low probabilities less than or equal to .001 were attained. It is recommended that the researcher consider using the t test for related measures as a viable option for McNemar's test except when the researcher is certain he/she is only interested in 'changes'. The chi-square test of independence not only tests a different hypothesis than McNemar's test, but it often yields greatly differing results from McNemar's test.