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This research effort focuses on methodology for quantifying the effects of model uncertainty and discretization error on computational modeling and simulation. The work is directed towards developing methodologies which treat model form assumptions within an overall framework for uncertainty quantification, for the purpose of developing estimates of total prediction uncertainty. The present effort consists of work in three areas: framework development for sources of uncertainty and error in the modeling and simulation process which impact model structure; model uncertainty assessment and propagation through Bayesian inference methods; and discretization error estimation within the context of non-deterministic analysis.

Typical designs for a Heavy Ion Fusion Power Plant require the source injector to deliver 100 beams, packed into an array with a spacing of 7 cm. When designing source injectors using a single large aperture source for each beam, the emitter surfaces are packed into an array with a spacing of 30 cm. Thus, the matching section of the source injector must not only prepare the beam for transport in a FODO lattice, but also funnel the beams together. This can be accomplished by an ESQ matching section in which each beam travels on average at a slight angle to the axis of the quadrupoles and uses the focusing effect of the FODO lattice to maintain the angle. At the end of the matching section, doublet steering is used to bring the beams parallel to each other for injection into the main accelerator. A specific solution of this type for an 84-beam source injector is presented.

The Heavy Ion Fusion Group at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has for several years been developing the world's first circular induction accelerator designed for space charge dominated ion beams. Experiments on one quarter of the ring have been completed. The accelerator extended ten half-lattice periods (HLP) with induction cores for acceleration placed on every other HLP. A network of Capacitive Beam Probes (C-probes) was also enabled for beam position monitoring throughout the bend section. These C-probes have been instrumental in steering experiment, implementation of the acceleration stages and the dipole pulser, and the first attempts at coordinated bending and acceleration. Data from these experiments and emittance measurements will be presented.

The authors examine CuPt-B atomic sublattice ordering in Ga{sub 0.51}In{sub 0.49}P (GaInP) and Ga{sub 0.47}In{sub 0.53}As (GaInAs) III-V alloy films grown by atmospheric- and low-pressure metalorganic chemical vapor deposition on singular and vicinal (001) substrates. The influences of growth conditions and substrate miscut on double- and single-variant ordered microstructures are investigated using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Relatively thick (>1-2 {micro}m) double-variant ordered GaInP and GaInAs films show complementary superdomain formation. Single-variant ordered films on <111>B-miscut substrates contain single-phase domains, separated by antiphase boundaries (APBs). The appearance of APBs in TEM dark-field images is anticipated from electron diffraction theory.

A miniature multiple beamlet approach to an injector system was recently proposed in order to reduce the size, cost, and power requirements of the injector. The beamlets of very high current density are needed to meet the brightness requirement. Besides vacuum arc ion sources, cold-cathode gas ion sources are candidates for this application. Vacuum-arc metal ion sources and vacuum-arc-like gas ion sources are discussed. Experiments are presented that focus on the short-pulse plasma composition and ion charge state distribution. Mg and Sr have been identified as the most promising metals leading to mono-species beams when 20 {mu}s arc pulses are used. It is shown that the efficient production of gas ions requires the presence of a magnetic field.

Technologies were investigated to determine viable processes for removing mercury from the calciner (NWCF) offgas system at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. Technologies for gas phase and aqueous phase treatment were evaluated. The technologies determined are intended to meet EPA Maximum Achievable Control Technology (MACT) requirements under the Clean Air Act and Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Currently, mercury accumulation in the calciner off-gas scrubbing system is transferred to the tank farm. These transfers lead to accumulation in the liquid heels of the tanks. The principal objective for aqueous phase mercury removal is heel mercury reduction. The system presents a challenge to traditional methods because of the presence of nitrogen oxides in the gas phase and high nitric acid in the aqueous scrubbing solution. Many old and new technologies were evaluated including sorbents and absorption in the gas phase and ion exchange, membranes/sorption, galvanic methods, and UV reduction in the aqueous phase. Process modifications and feed pre-treatment were also evaluated. Various properties of mercury and its compounds were summarized and speciation was predicted based on thermodynamics. Three systems (process modification, NOxidizer combustor, and electrochemical aqueous phase treatment) and additional technology testing were recommended.

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Americium (III) exhibits an unexpectedly high affinity for anion-exchange material from the high-salt evaporator bottoms solutions--an effect which has not been duplicated using simple salt solutions. Similar behavior is observed for its lanthanide homologue, Nd(III), in complex evaporator bottoms surrogate solutions. There appears to be no single controlling factor--acid concentration, total nitrate concentration or solution ionic strength--which accounts for the approximately 2-fold increase in retention of the trivalent ions from complex solutions relative to simple solutions. Calculation of species activities (i.e., water, proton and nitrate) in such concentrated mixed salt solutions is difficult and of questionable accuracy, but it is likely that the answer to forcing formation of anionic nitrate complexes of americium lies in the relative activities of water and nitrate. From a practical viewpoint, the modest americium removal needs (ca. 50--75%) from nitric acid evaporator bottoms allow sufficient latitude for the use of non-optimized conditions such as running existing columns filled with older, well-used Reillex HPQ. Newer materials, such as HPQ-100 and the experimental bifunctional resins, which exhibit higher distribution coefficients, would allow for either increased Am removal or the use of smaller columns. It is also of interest that one of the experimental neutral-donor solid-support extractants, DHDECMP, …

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Since 1983, under the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, as amended (42 U.S.C. 10101 et seq.), the U.S. Department of Energy (the Department) has been investigating a site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, to determine whether it is suitable for development as the nation's first repository for permanent geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. By far, the largest quantity of waste destined for geologic disposal is spent nuclear fuel from 118 commercial nuclear power reactors at 72 power plant sites and 1 commercial storage site across the United States. Currently, 104 of these reactors are still in operation and generate about 20 percent of the country's electricity. Under standard contracts that DOE executed with the utilities, DOE is to accept spent nuclear fuel from the utilities for disposal. Until that happens, the utilities must safely store their spent nuclear fuel in compliance with Nuclear Regulatory Commission regulations. As of December 1998, commercial spent nuclear fuel containing approximately 38,500 metric tons of heavy metal (MTHM) was stored in 33 states. The balance of the waste destined for geologic disposal in a repository is Department-owned spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The Department's spent nuclear fuel includes …

Reservoir performance and characterization are vital parameters during the development phase of a project. Infill drilling of wells on a uniform spacing, without regard to characterization does not optimize development because it fails to account for the complex nature of reservoir heterogeneities present in many low permeability reservoirs, especially carbonate reservoirs. These reservoirs are typically characterized by: (1) large, discontinuous pay intervals; (2) vertical and lateral changes in reservoir properties; (3) low reservoir energy; (4) high residual oil saturation; and (5) low recovery efficiency. The operational problems they encounter in these types of reservoirs include: (1) poor or inadequate completions and stimulations; (2) early water breakthrough; (3) poor reservoir sweep efficiency in contacting oil throughout the reservoir as well as in the nearby well regions; (4) channeling of injected fluids due to preferential fracturing caused by excessive injection rates; and (5) limited data availability and poor data quality. Infill drilling operations only need target areas of the reservoir which will be economically successful. If the most productive areas of a reservoir can be accurately identified by combining the results of geological, petrophysical, reservoir performance, and pressure transient analyses, then this ''integrated'' approach can be used to optimize reservoir performance during …

The results of Laboratory and Bench-Scale experiments and supporting technical and economic assessments conducted under DOE Contract No. DE-AC22-91PC91040 is reported for the period April 1, 1998 to June 30, 1998. This contract is with the University of kentucky Research Foundation, which supports work with the University of Kentucky Center for Applied Energy Researc, CONSOL, Inc., LDP Associates, and Hydrocarbon Technologies, Inc. This work involves the introduction into the basic two-stage liquefaction process several novel concepts, which include dispersed lower-cost catalysts, coal cleaning by oil agglomeration, and distillate hydrotreating and dewaxing.

The results of Laboratory and Bench-Scale experiments and supporting technical and economic assessments conducted under DOE Contract No. DE-ACC22-91PC91040 is reported for the period January 1, 1999 to March 31, 2000. This work involves the introduction into the basic two-stage liquefaction process several novel concepts, which include dispersed lower-cost catalysts, coal cleaning by oil agglomeration, and distillate hydrotreating and dewaxing. This project has been modified to include an investigation into the production of value added materials from coal using liquefaction based technologies.

The results of Laboratory and Bench-Scale experiments and supporting technical and economic assessments conducted under DOE Contract No. DE-AC22-91PC91040 is reported for the period April 1, 1998 to June 30, 1998. This contract is with the University of kentucky Research Foundation, which supports work with the University of Kentucky Center for Applied Energy Researc, CONSOL, Inc., LDP Associates, and Hydrocarbon Technologies, Inc. This work involves the introduction into the basic two-stage liquefaction process several novel concepts, which include dispersed lower-cost catalysts, coal cleaning by oil agglomeration, and distillate hydrotreating and dewaxing.

The results of Laboratory and Bench-Scale experiments and supporting technical and economic assessments conducted under DOE Contract No. DE-AC22-91PC91040 is reported for the period April 1, 1998 to June 30, 1998. This contract is with the University of kentucky Research Foundation, which supports work with the University of Kentucky Center for Applied Energy Researc, CONSOL, Inc., LDP Associates, and Hydrocarbon Technologies, Inc. This work involves the introduction into the basic two-stage liquefaction process several novel concepts, which include dispersed lower-cost catalysts, coal cleaning by oil agglomeration, and distillate hydrotreating and dewaxing.

The Life Sciences Division (LSD) of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has a long record of radiation dosimetry research, primarily using the Health Physics Research Reactor (HPRR) and the Dosimetry Applications Research (DOSAR) Program Calibration Laboratory (CalLab), referred to formerly as the Radiation Calibration Laboratory. These facilities have been used by a broad segment of the research community to perform a variety of experiments in areas including, but not limited to, radiobiology, radiation dosimeter and instrumentation development and calibration, and the testing of materials in a variety of radiation environments.

This report documents the work performed by First Solar, LLC, during the first year of this Photovoltaic Manufacturing Technology (PVMaT) subcontract. The following milestones were successfully completed: (1) Initiate lamination development program by interviewing key suppliers and experts such as STR, Inc., ARRI, and automotive glass manufacturers; (2) Complete process specification for high-throughput laminator; (3) Initiate contact with module testing laboratory and complete preliminary module design review; (4) Complete review and survey of current environmental, health and safety (EHS) programs; (5) Complete design specifications for the high-throughput laminator; (6) Complete preliminary testing of modules; (7) Establish Qualification Testing Schedule; (8) Develop plans for critical areas of EHS improvement with the assistance of industry experts such as OSHA On-Site Consultation; (9) Begin de-bug of high-throughput laminator; (10) Initiate qualification testing on First Solar's standard modules; (11) Initiate EHS improvement projects; (12) Complete prove-in of high-throughput laminator at a rate of 30 modules per hour; (13) Complete report on lamination rates, yields, and reductions in labor and equipment costs; (14) Complete qualification testing on First Solar's standard module for IEEE 1262 and UL 1703; and (15) Complete implementation of critical EHS improvements.

Today there exist many almost overfilled storage tanks with liquid radioactive waste in the Russian Federation. This waste was generated over several years by the civil and military utilization of nuclear power. The current waste treatment capacity is either not available or inadequate. Following the London Convention, dumping of the waste in the Arctic seas is no longer an alternative. Waste is being generated from today's operations, and large volumes are expected to be generated from the dismantling of decommissioned nuclear submarines. The US and Norway have an ongoing co-operation project with the Russian Federation to upgrade and expand the capacity of a treatment facility for low level liquid waste at the RTP Atomflot site in Murmansk. The capacity will be increased from 1,200 m{sup 3}/year to 5,000 m{sup 3} /year. The facility will also be able to treat high saline waste. The construction phase will be completed the first half of 1998. This will be followed by a start-up and a one year post-construction phase, with US and Norwegian involvement for the entire project. The new facility will consist of 9 units containing various electrochemical, filtration, and sorbent-based treatment systems. The units will be housed in two existing buildings, …

The low frequency variation in the three dimensional air temperature fields of two reanalyses and two model simulations are described. The data sets used are the monthly mean temperature fields for the NCAR Climate Simulation Model (CSM, Boville and Gent, 1998) 300 year run, a NCAR Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3, Kiehl et al., 1998) AMIP type simulation, and the NCEP/NCAR and ECMWF (ERA) reanalysis data sets. The variances and correlations are computed for the anomalies from the annual cycle for each data set. In general the reanalyses and models agree fairly well on the structure of the temperature variance. The models tend to have too much variance at the surface compared to the reanalyses. The CSMs poor simulation of the SST in the eastern Pacific leads to a much reduced variance in the Nino3 region. The enhanced variability over land appears to affect the midlatitude simulation of the CSM in that the higher surface variability extends off the east coast of continents. This is not evident in CCM3 and reanalyses where the SSTs are prescribed. At 200 hPa the CCM3 and reanalyses all evince the dumb bell pattern straddling the Equator in the eastern Pacific attributed by Yulaeva …

The global water vapor distribution for five observational based data sets and three GCM integrations are compared. The variables considered are the mean and standard deviation values of the precipitable water for the entire atmospheric column and the 500 to 300 hPa layer for January and July. The observationally based sets are the radiosonde data of Ross and Elliott, the ERA and NCEP reanalyses, and the NVAP blend of sonde and satellite data. The three GCM simulations all use the NCAR CCM3 as the atmospheric model. They include: a AMIP type simulation using observed SSTs for the period 1979 to 1993, the NCAR CSM 300 year coupled ocean--atmosphere integration, and a CSM integration with a 1% CO2 increase per year. The observational data exhibit some serious inconsistencies. There are geographical patterns of differences related to interannual variations and national instrument biases. It is clear that the proper characterization of water vapor is somewhat uncertain. Some conclusions about these data appear to be robust even given the discrepancies. The ERA data are too dry especially in the upper levels. The observational data evince much better agreement in the data rich Northern Hemisphere compared to the Southern. Distinct biases are quite pronounced …

In this final report, we summarize research on climate variability and forcing mechanisms responsible for these changes. We report on research related to high elevation climate change, changes in the hydrological cycle and the seasonality of precipitation and on changes in climatic extremes. A comprehensive bibliography of research articles and books arising from this grant is included as an appendix.

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The authors show how one may define baryon constituent quarks in a rigorous manner, given physical assumptions that hold in the large-N{sub c} limit of QCD. This constituent picture gives rise to an operator expansion that has been used to study large-N{sub c} baryon observables; here they apply it to the case of charge radii of the N and {Delta} states. For example, one finds the relation r{sub p}{sup 2} {minus} r{sub {Delta}{sup +}}{sup 2} = r{sub n}{sup 2} {minus} r{sub {Delta}{sup 0}}{sup 2} to be broken only by three-body, O(1/N{sub c}{sup 2}) effects for any N{sub c}.