This report provides information on and analysis of the current situation in Afghanistan, taking into consideration the country’s essential characteristics and political developments since about the time of the overthrow of the last Afghan King, Zahir Shah, in 1973, and sketches out four possible scenarios for Afghanistan’s future. Finally, the report identifies and analyzes factors that will influence Afghanistan’s political future, and discusses three policy areas in particular in which actions by the United States could be crucial to the achievement of the U.S. goal of a peaceful, stable, democratic, and terrorist-free Afghanistan. An appendix contains key documents relating to the December 2001 Bonn Agreement, which is the framework for current efforts to create a stable and democratic Afghanistan.

The United States and its allies are helping Afghanistan emerging from more than 22 years of warfare, although substantial risk to Afghan stability remains. Before the U.S. military campaign against the orthodox Islamist Taliban movement began on October 7, 2001, Afghanistan had been mired in conflict since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. The defeat of the Taliban has enabled the United States and its coalition partners to send forces throughout Afghanistan to search for Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters and leaders that remain at large, including Osama bin Laden. As the war against remaining Al Qaeda and Taliban elements winds down, the United States is shifting its military focus toward stabilizing the interim government, including training a new Afghan national army, and supporting the international security force (ISAF) that is helping the new government provide security.