This report assesses the possibility of increased oil production from 21 less developed non-OPEC countries (excluding the Middle East and Mexico) by 1985. The forecast is compared with those prepared by the World Bank, the International Energy Agency, and others. The 21 Latin American, African, and Far East (including Asia) countries produce 2.5 million barrels of oil per day (BD) or 4.2% of world production, and they have 21 billion barrels of proved reserves, or 3.2% of the world total. In recent years these countries have consumed 3.1 million BD, some 0.9 million barrels in excess of their production. By 1985, the 21 countries may produce 3.9 million BD, an average annual increase of 5.0%; however, demand is expected to increase at an annual rate of 3.5% to 4.4 million BD. The net effect is that the 1985 aggregated supply-demand balance will be in deficit, by nearly 560 thousand BD, compared to slightly more than 930 thousand BD in 1976.

This paper examines United States arms transfer policies as they have been applied to Peru since the end of World War II and analyzes the role of these policies in achieving the goals of the United States as delineated by Luigi Einaudi et al. in their Arms Transfers to Latin America: Toward a Policy of Mutual Respect. The paper traces the course of recent U.S.-Peruvian relations, with special emphasis on Peru's arms acquisitions since 1968. The author concludes that, while U.S. arms transfer policies have undoubtedly strained U.S.-Peruvian relations over the past decade, the refusal of the U.S. to provide advanced weapons to Peru will prove to be in the best interests of the United States in the long run.