In recent times, religion has become a powerful force in giving legitimacy to terrorist actions. The present work considers this highly salient fact, as well as stresses the necessity to consider the historical and social contexts and group power resources in any meaningful analysis of violent protest movements. Quantitative rigor is combined with a sensitivity to context. Terrorism is operationalized by taking a time-based count of terrorist killings of innocent people. Regime acts of omission and commission are coded as time series interventions. The analysis also includes a continuous variable measuring the incidence of economic distress in Punjab. A case is also made for the superiority of Box- Jenkins time series techniques for the quantitative analysis of problems of this nature.

This study emphasizes the impact of family planning program components on contraceptive prevalence in less industrialized countries. Building on Lapham and Mauldin's "Program Effort and Fertility Decline" framework and policy evaluation's theory, the author developed two models to examine the impact of family planning programs on contraceptive prevalence and fertility under the constraints of socioeconomic development and demand for family planning. The study employed path analysis and multiple regression on data from the 1982 program effort study in 94 less developed countries (LDCs) by Lapham and Mauldin and 98 LDCs of the 1989 program effort study by Mauldin and Ross. The results of data analyses for all data sets are consistent for the most part. Major findings are as follows: (1) A combination of program effort and socioeconomic development best explains the variation of contraceptive prevalence. (2) Among socioeconomic variables, female literacy exerts the strongest direct and indirect influences to increase contraceptive prevalence and indirect influence to decrease total fertility rate. (3) Christianity performs a significant role in reducing contraceptive prevalence. (4) Among program effort components, availability and accessibility for fertility-control supplies and services have the most influence on contraceptive prevalence. (5) When controlling for demand for family planning, female …

A mail survey of Nigerian immigrants in Dallas, Texas, and Chicago, Illinois, was conducted during October and November 1995. Four hundred and sixty-eight Nigerian immigrant families in the two cities were selected by systematic sampling through the telephone books. Return rate was approximately 40% (187). The variables included in the study were media exposure variables, general demographics, immigration traits, U.S. demographics, Nigerian demographics, and political and cultural traits. New variables which had not been included in previous studies were also tested in this study: television talk shows, talk radio, diffuse support for the U.S. political system, authoritarianism, self-esteem, and political participation. This study employed multiple regression analysis and path analysis of the data. This study found that Nigerian immigrants have high preference for television news as their main source of political information. This finding is in consonance with previous studies. Nigerian immigrants chose ABC news stations as their number one news station for political information. Strong positive associations existed between media exposure and length of stay in the United States and interest in U.S. politics. Talk radio positively associated with interest in U.S. politics and negatively associated with length of stay in the United States. Thus, this finding likely means …

This study develops a model of macroeconomic and political determinants of public support for European integration. The research is conducted on pooled cross-sectional time-series data from five European Union member states between 1978 and 1994. The method used in this analysis is a Generalized Least Squares - Autoregressive Moving Average approach. The factors hypothesized to determine a macroeconomic explanation of public support for integration are inflation, unemployment, and economic growth. The effect of the major economic reform in the 1980s, the Single European Act, is hypothesized to act as a positive permanent intervention. The other determinants of public support are the temporary interventions of European Parliament elections and the permanent intervention of the Maastricht Treaty in 1992. These are hypothesized to exert a negative effect. In a fully specified model all variables except economic growth and European Parliament elections demonstrate statistical significance at the 0.10 level or better.

This study assumes that political terrorism results from conscious decision-making by groups opposing a governing system, policy or process. The kinds of terrorist activity employed depend upon such factors as the philosophy, goals, objectives, and needs of the terrorist group. This presents a comparative analysis of three types of terrorists in southwest Asia: Palestinians, Marxist-Leninists, and Muslims. The first section summarizes and compares the three groups' motivational causes, philosophies, histories and sources of inspiration. The second section compares their behavior from four perspectives: trends and patterns, level of violence, tactical preferences, and lethality. The third section identifies and categorizes socioeconomic, political and military variables associated with tactic selection and acts of terrorism.

The focus of this investigation is the relationship of the United States Supreme Court's functional performance to its environment. Three functions of courts are noted in the literature: conflict resolution, social control and administration. These functions are operationalized for the United States Supreme Court. Hypotheses are developed relative to the general performance of these three functions by all courts. Box-Jenkins time series analysis is then used to test these hypotheses in relation to the performance of the United States Supreme Court. The primary analysis rests upon a data set that includes all non-unanimous decisions of the Supreme Court from 1916 to 1986. A supplemental analysis is conducted using all formal decisions for the 1953 to 1986 period. The results suggest that intellectual resources, legal resources, modernization, and court discretion are significant influences on the functional performance of the United States Supreme Court. Future research must consider these influences in the development of a general theory of courts.

This dissertation investigates the consequences of fractional dynamics for political modeling. Using Monte Carlo analyses, Chapters II and III investigate the threats to statistical inference posed by including fractionally integrated variables in bivariate and multivariate regressions. Fractional differencing is the most appropriate tool to guard against spurious regressions and other threats to inference. Using fractional differencing, multivariate models of British politics are developed in Chapter IV to compare competing theories regarding which subjective measure of economic evaluations best predicts support levels for the governing party; egocentric measures outperform sociotropic measures. The concept of fractional cointegration is discussed and the value of fractionally integrated error correction mechanisms are both discussed and demonstrated in models of Conservative party support. In Chapter V models of presidential approval in the United States are reconfigured in light of the possibilities of fractionally integrated variables. In both the British and American case accounting for the fractional character of all variables allows the development of more accurate multivariate models.

This thesis examines the critical factors leading to the 1948 decision by the United States government to extend recognition to the newly declared State of Israel. In the first of five chapters the literature on the recognition of Israel is discussed. Chapter II presents the theoretical foundation of the thesis by tracing the development of Charles Kegley's decision regime framework. Also discussed is the applicability of bureaucratic structure theory and K. J. Holsti's hierarchy of objectives. Chapters III and IV present the empirical history of this case, each closing with a chapter summary. The final chapter demonstrates the relevance and validity of the theoretical framework to the case and closes with a call for further research into the processes of foreign policy decision-making.

The postwar transformation of the international environment has caused economic issues to become a main source of contention among industrial states. The trade imbalance between Japan and its trading partners became a major source of conflict. Reciprocity of access and opening the market of Japan became the main point of debate and the major issue affecting relations between Japan and the United States. While the distinction between the domain of domestic and international politics increasingly is blurred, different domestic political economies create bilateral political and economic conflict. The structure and politics of intercorporate groups or vertical keiretsu are a major feature of Japan's industrial structure and political economy. This case study examines how vertical keiretsu in the automobile and home electric appliance industries affect the Japanese political economy and international trade. A political economy approach focuses on the political context of economic phenomena by analyzing both political and economic variables. Case studies of keiretsu were used in order to gain an understanding of Japan's political economy. A number of propositions or assumptions about the political economy and the dynamics of keiretsu were examined in these studies. It was found that vertical keiretsu influences the industrial sector, trade, and foreign policies …

Right-wing parties in European states have improved electorally in recent years. The small German Republikaner party is representative of these successes. This study examines outcomes for the Republikaner that may be attributable to movements on a number of policy issues.

Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua have all experienced significant social, economic, and political changes during the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s. Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua experienced violent national revolts, while Costa Rica and Honduras did not. I tested a process theory that endeavored to account for the origins and intensity of national revolts in Central America. The analysis was formulated in a most-similar-systems (MSS) design. Pooled cross-sectional time-series regression techniques were employed in order to conform with the MSS variation-finding strategy. The findings supported the conclusion that armed attacks against the state were not random occurrences, but rather, that they may have arisen in response to certain economic and political conditions.

This study provides a first attempt at building a multivariate model to explain terrorist activity by including six national factors proposed to have a relationship to the number of terrorist events occurring in a given nation and the number of terrorist incidents attributed to groups primarily identified with a given nation. These factors include rate of population growth, level of economic development, economic growth rate, level of democracy, presence of leftist regime type, and level of repression. After applying Ordinary Least Squares to these national factors in both a cross-sectional and a pooled cross-sectional time series analysis, only the level of democracy, the level of repression, and the lagged endogenous variables representing previous terrorist activity demonstrated strong and statistically significant relationships to the two dependent variables tested in both designs.

This study develops a model of different types of political regime changes and their effect on life integrity violations. The data covers 147 countries from 1977-1993. Basic bivariate analyses and multivariate pooled cross-sectional time series analyses employing Ordinary Least Squares regression with panel-corrected standard errors are used. The results show that political regime change in general has no effect on state-sponsored violence. Looking at different types of regime changes, the regression analysis indicates that change from democracy to anocracy is positively correlated with levels of repression at the level of p < .001. A change toward democracy from autocracy is negatively related to human rights violations at the level of p < .01, once relevant control variables are considered.

This study develops and tests a group conflict model as an explanation for international immigration beliefs in the United States and Canada. Group conflict is structured by evaluations concerning group relationships and group members. At a conceptual level group conflict explains a broad range of policy beliefs among a large number of actors in multiple settings. Group conflict embodies attitudes relating to objective-based conditions and subjective-based beliefs.

Comparative studies of democratization point to a multitude of explanatory factors, while often lacking empirical evidence and theoretical foundation. This study introduces the revolution in information technology as a significant contributor to democratization in the 1980s and beyond. Utilizing a cybernetic version of an evolutionary interpretation of democratization an amended model for 147 countries is tested by bivariate and multiple regression analysis. The focus of the analysis is on how the first-ever use of an indicator of information technology explains democratization. The overall findings show that information technology is a meaningful element in the study of democratization today.

U.S. policymakers consistently argue that U.S. security depends on hemispheric democracy. As an instrument of U.S. policy, did foreign assistance promote democracy in Central America, 1946 through 1994? Finding that U.S. foreign assistance directly promoted neither GDP nor democracy in Central America, 1946 through 1994, I conclude that U.S. policy failed consistently in this specific regard.

This study focuses on clarifying the relationships among decentralization, privatization, and economic development in developing countries.

Studies of political culture have often focused on the impact of political institutions on political culture in a society. The scientific community has accepted the position that institutions shape beliefs and attitudes among the citizens towards the system they live in. This study tests this hypothesis by using survey data collected during the fall of 1990 in the United States, Great Britain, Italy, West, and East Germany.

This study analyzes activist behavior of Supreme Court justices in 132 decisions which struck down congressional statutes as unconstitutional in 1789-1990. Analysis of the justices' activist rates and liberalism scores demonstrate that these votes are ideologically based. Integrated models containing personal attribute and case factor variables are constructed to explore the votes as activist behavior. The same models are also tested with a new dependent variable constructed to measure the nullification votes as liberal votes. The models which explain the votes as ideological responses better explain the votes than the models which explain the votes as activism or restraint. The attribute variables offer better explanation in the late 20th century models and the case factors offer better explanation in the early period models.

The purpose of this study is to examine two major psychological determinants of the vote in presidential elections - candidate image and party orientation. The central thesis of this study is that candidate image, as measured here, has been a greater determinant of electoral choice in the majority of presidential elections since 1952 than has party orientation. One of the vices as well as virtues of a democratic society is that the people often get what they want. This is especially true in the case of electing our leaders. Political scientists have often concentrated their efforts on attempting to ascertain why people vote as they do. Studies have been conducted focusing on the behavior of voters in making that important decision-who should govern?

Traditional studies of the modernization-instability thesis have neglected the simultaneous influence of time and place on the relationship between modernization (social mobilization and political participation) and political instability, and the possible causal linkage between the two concepts. Empirical support for modernization-instability hypothesis will be obtained if and only if there is a strong positive correlation between modernization and political instability and the former causes the latter unidirectionally. Only then can one assert that modernization is exogenous, and that a policy geared toward restricting modernization is a proper anti-instability policy. This work attempts to address the question of correlation and causality through a pooled time-series cross-sectional data design and the use of Granger-causality tests. Particular attention is paid to the error structure of the models. Using pooled regression, a model of political instability is estimated for a total of 35 countries for the period 1960-1982. Granger tests are performed on twelve separate countries randomly selected from the 35. The results indicate that there is the expected positive relationship between modernization and political instability. Further, political institutionalization and economic well-being have strong negative influence on political instability. With regard to causality, the results vary by country. Some countries experience no causality between …