This report explores different roles and use of foresight into Congressional process.

A GIS-based modeling system was developed for analyzing the geographic variation in potential switchgrass feedstock supplies and prices. The modeling system is designed for analyzing individual US states; parameters for six southern states (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee) and five midwestern states (Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota). Potential switchgrass supplies are estimated for each state under two switchgrass technology adoption scenarios.

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A simplified model of global, long-term energy use is described and used to make a `top-level` comparison of two generic approaches for mitigating atmospheric carbon emissions: (a) those based on increased energy efficiency; and (b) those based on increased use of reduced- or non-carbon fuels. As approximate as is the model, first-order estimates of and trade offs between increasing non-carbon generation capacities (e.g., supply-side solutions) versus energy-use efficiency (e.g., demand-side solutions) to stem atmospheric carbon accumulations can be useful in guiding more elaborate models. At the level of this analysis, both the costs of abatement and the costs of damage can be large, with the formation of benefit-to-cost ratios as a means of assessment being limited by uncertainties associated with relating given climatic responses to greenhouse warming to aggregate damage cost, as well as uncertainties associated with procedures used for multi-generation discounting of both abatement and damage costs. In view of uncertainties associated with both supply-side and demand-side approaches, as well as the estimation of greenhouse-warming responses per se, a combination of solutions seems prudent. Key findings are: (a) the relative insensitivity of the benefit-to-cost ratio adopted in this study to supply-side versus demand-side approaches to abating atmospheric carbon-dioxide emissions; …