Taiwan and Japan might seem to be two similar island economies when viewed from this side of the Pacific, but they are strikingly dissimilar. Over the twentieth century, their relationship with one another has shifted from colonial to mutual growth and recognition to the current anomaly of an intense economic interchange accompanied by severed diplomatic ties. Between Taiwan and Japan, the private sector is taking the lead in developing a relationship that is both mutually beneficial and strained.

Discussions in Japan in May 1992 related to potential agreements at the September 1992 Russian-Japanese summit were keyed to the central question, Will the barriers to significant commercial cooperation involving Russia, Japan and the United States in Russian Siberia be removed? [1] From these discussions among key Japanese industrialists, bankers, government officials and academics who influence policy, came a tentative "yes", if four conditions are met. A positive outcome would thus seem more likely than at any previous time. Such an outcome would likely promote profitable trade and investment, creating jobs in U.S. enterprises and serve as a vehicle for mutually beneficial U.S.-Japanese cooperation.

The surprise election of Socialist Party leader Tomiichi Murayama as Prime Minister on June 29, 1994, reflects an ongoing process of change and realignment in Japanese politics that, in the short term, has made the management of U.S.-Japan relations significantly more difficult and impeded the resolution of important issues. Although Murayama has pledged continuity in U.S.-Japan relations, and key cabinet posts have been given to senior LDP leaders with experience in dealing with Washington, his election could have a number of negative implications for U.S. interests. Among other possibilities, the change could temporarily set back the cause of political reform in Japan, further delay the recovery of the Japanese economy from a three-year long slump, pose new obstacles to trade negotiations aimed at more fully opening Japanese markets to U.S. goods and services, and bring into question Tokyo's cooperation under certain scenarios on the issue of North Korea's nuclear weapons program. The likely hiatus in major decisionmaking may continue at least until the next general election.

Japan's current political instability began in July 1993, when the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) -- in power since 1955 - was voted out and replaced by a fragile multiparty coalition government under Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa. The new government faced turmoil in April 1994, when Hosokawa suddenly resigned amid a personal financial scandal. Then-deputy prime minister/foreign minister Tsutomu Hata succeeded, but only at the head of a minority government after the Socialist party, a key coalition partner, quit the Hata coalition. Although beset by its own internal squabbles, the LDP remained the single largest party in Japan's bicameral Diet, or parliament. In late June, Hata was forced to resign under threat of an LDP-led no-confidence motion.