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Estimating market penetration of new district heating and cooling systems using a combination of economic cost and diffusion models (open access)

Estimating market penetration of new district heating and cooling systems using a combination of economic cost and diffusion models

The economic-cost model and the diffusion model are among the many market-penetration forecasting approaches that are available. These approaches have been used separately in many applications. In this paper, the authors briefly review these two approaches and then describe a methodology for forecasting market penetration using both approaches sequentially. This methodology is illustrated with the example of market-penetration forecasting of new district heating and cooling (DHC) systems in the Argonne DHC Market Penetration Model, which was developed and used over the period 1979--1983. This paper discusses how this combination approach, which incorporates the strengths of the economic-cost and diffusion models, has been superior to any one approach for market forecasts of DHC systems. Also discussed are the required modifications for revising and updating the model in order to generate new market-penetration forecasts for DHC systems. These modifications are required as a result of changes in DHC engineering, economic, and market data from 1983 to 1990. 13 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs.
Date: May 10, 1991
Creator: Teotia, Arvind P. S. & Karvelas, Dimitrios E.
System: The UNT Digital Library