Once hostilities end in Afghanistan and the Afghan phase of the war on terrorism starts to wind down, reconstruction efforts will begin in earnest. International attention will likely turn to Afghanistan’s short- and medium-term future, raising questions between the United States and its allies about division of labor, burdensharing, and exit strategies. It is anticipated that Congress will examine reconstruction efforts underway, aid priorities, long-term reconstruction proposals, and the implementation role to be played by the United States.

This report provides information on and analysis of the current situation in Afghanistan, taking into consideration the country’s essential characteristics and political developments since about the time of the overthrow of the last Afghan King, Zahir Shah, in 1973, and sketches out four possible scenarios for Afghanistan’s future. Finally, the report identifies and analyzes factors that will influence Afghanistan’s political future, and discusses three policy areas in particular in which actions by the United States could be crucial to the achievement of the U.S. goal of a peaceful, stable, democratic, and terrorist-free Afghanistan. An appendix contains key documents relating to the December 2001 Bonn Agreement, which is the framework for current efforts to create a stable and democratic Afghanistan.