Most estimates of the time required for safe isolation of radioactive wastes from the biosphere range from 100,000 to 1,000,000 years. For such long time spans, it is necessary to assess the potential effects of geologic processes such as volcanism and tectonic activity on the integrity of geologic repositories. Predictions of geologic phenomena can be based on probabilistic models, which assume a random distribution of events. The necessary historic and geologic records are rarely available to provide an adequate data base for such predictions. The observed distribution of volcanic and tectonic activity is not random, and appears to be controlled by extremely complex deterministic processes. The advent of global plate tectonic theory in the past two decades has been a giant step toward understanding these processes. At each potential repository site, volcanic and tectonic processes should be evaluated to provide the most thorough possible understanding of those deterministic processes. Based on this knowledge, judgements will have to be made as to whether or not the volcanic and tectonic processes pose unacceptable risk to the integrity of the repository. This report describes the potential hazards associated with volcanism and tectonism, and the means for evaluating these processes.

This report is a review of the state-of-the-art for evaluating the potential impact of flooding on a deep radioactive-waste repository, namely, for predicting the future occurrence of catastrophic flooding and for estimating the effect of such flooding on waste containment characteristics. Several detrimental effects are identified: flooding can increase groundwater seepage velocities through a repository within the framework of the existing hydrologic system and thus increase the rate of radioactive-waste leakage to the biosphere; flooding may alter repository hydrology by reversing flow gradients, relocating sources of groundwater recharge and discharge, or shortening seepage paths, thereby producing unpredictable leakage; saturation of a vadose-zone repository during flooding can increase groundwater seepage velocities by several orders of magnitude; and flooding can damage repository-media containment properties by inducing seismic or chemical instability or increasing fracture permeability in relatively shallow repository rock as a result of redistributing in-situ stresses. Short-term flooding frequency and magnitude can be predicted statistically by analyzing historical records of flooding. However, long-term flooding events that could damage a permanent repository cannot be predicted with confidence because the geologic record is neither unique nor sufficienly complete for statistical analysis. It is more important to identify parameters characterizing containment properties (such as permeability, …

The potential impact of future geologic processes on the integrity of a deep, high-level radioactive-waste repository is evaluated. The following study identifies the potential consequences of surface erosion and deposition on sub-surface repository containment characteristics and assesses the ability to measure and predict quantitatively the rates and corresponding extent of these processes in the long term. Numerous studies of the magnitudes and rates of surficial erosion and deposition that have been used to determine the minimum allowable depth for a geologic repository (300 m - NRC Code of Federal Regulations, Part 60.122, Draft 10) are cited in this report. Measurement and interpretation of potential rates and extent of surficial processes in these studies involved considerable uncertainty, and the implications of this uncertainty on presently proposed repository siting criteria are addressed herein. Important concepts that should be considered when developing siting criteria to protect against deleterious effects arising from future erosion or deposition are highlighted. Erosion agents that could affect deep repositories are distinguished in this report so that their individual and combined impacts may be examined. This approach is recommended when evaluating potential repository sites in diverse environments that are susceptible to different agents of erosion. In contrast, agents of …

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