Setting performance criteria for systems that safeguard special nuclear material (SNM) involves many considerations: characteristics of adversaries attempting to divert SNM, safeguards response to attempts, costs of safeguards systems, and the consequences of diverted SNM. This paper describes an Aggregated Systems Model which is designed to assist decision makers integrate and evaluate consistently these diverse factors. Results from applying the model to a hypothetical facility handling SNM are summarized. The paper also describes a new performance criterion designed to measure the effectiveness of a safeguard system in deterring adversaries.

The seismic coupling efficiency of nuclear explosions was studied in granite by means of computer calculations as a function of scaled explosion source radius. The scaled source radii were varied from 0.1 m/kt/sup 1/3/ (point source) to 20 m/kt/sup 1/3/ (representing a nearly full decoupling cavity). It was found that seismic coupling efficiency is at a maximum when the scaled source radius is approximately 2 m/kt/sup 1/3/. The primary cause of this maximum in seismic wave source strength is the effect of initial source radius on peak particle velocity and pulse duration of the outgoing elastic wave. A secondary cause is that rock vaporization (an energy sink) does not occur for scaled source radii somewhat greater than 1 m/kt/sup 1/3/. Therefore, for scaled source radii greater than 1 m/kt/sup 1/3/, there is additional energy available for seismic wave generations. Available data for some nuclear explosions at the Nevada Test Site do not provide sufficient evidence to either support or negate the enhanced coupling that is indicated by calculations at scaled source radii of 1-2 m/kt/sup 1/3/.

The environmental impact assessment of the Nova projects (Building 391 Complex) describes (1) the proposed actions, (2) the existing environment in and around the Livermore Valley, and (3) the potential environmental impacts from the construction and operation of these facilities. It shows that the proposed action does not conflict with any Federal, State, Regional, or Local Plans and Programs. Possible alternatives to the proposed action are discussed. However, it is concluded that the proposed actions were the most reasonable of the alternatives and would involve relatively minor adverse environmental impacts.

A series of pressure-transient tests was performed using several geothermal wells in the southwestern portion of the Salton Sea Geothermal Field in the Imperial Valley, California. The objective of the tests was to evaluate the permeability and storage capacity of the geothermal reservoir. Measurement of pressure transients in the corrosive, high-temperature environment of geothermal wells was made possible by modifying commercially available instrumentation and fabrication of pressure-sensing devices from very corrosion-resistant material. Analysis of pressure-transient data associated with production from and injection into the geothermal reservoir provides estimates of reservoir permeability that vary from 70 to 1000 md, with most of the values in the range from 70 to 220 md. A reservoir porosity-compressibility product of 2.8 x 10{sup -6} psi{sup -1} was derived. The pressure responses to the tests appear to be characteristic of a confined, nonleaky reservoir. The vertical permeability of a 40-ft-thick shale layer within the reservoir was estimated to be between 0.1 and 1 md. No lateral positive or negative hydraulic boundaries were detected. The pressure response of the primary spent-brine injection well was indicative of combined fracture and matrix flow in the reservoir. This well's lifetime with no brine treatment prior to injection would be …

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The potential impact on air quality of geothermal development in California's Imperial Valley is assessed. The assessment is based on the predictions of numerical atmospheric transport models. Emission rates derived from analyses of the composition of geothermal fluids in the region and meteorological data taken at six locations in the valley over a 1-yr period were used as input to the models. Scenarios based on 3000 MW, 2000 MW, 500 MW, and 100 MW of power production are considered. Hydrogen sulfide is the emission of major concern. Our calculations predict that at the 3000-MW level (with no abatement), the California 1-h standard for H{sub 2}S(42 {mu}g/m{sup 3}) would be violated at least 1% of the time over an area of approximately 1500 km{sup 2} (about 1/3 of the valley area). The calculations indicate that an H{sub 2}S emission rate below 0.8 g/s per 100-MW unit is needed to avoid violations of the standard beyond a distance of 1 km from the source. Emissions of ammonia, carbon dioxide, mercury, and radon are not expected to produce significant ground level concentrations, nor is the atmospheric conversion of hydrogen sulfide to sulfur dioxide expected to result in significant SO{sub 2} levels.

In support of this effort, an average of 55 samples with approximately 4 analyses per sample comes into the ICPP analytical laboratory each day. Information concerning these samples, the 60 people handling the samples, and the 90 methods of running samples is registered, processed, and accessed daily. A manual paper system was found to be inadequate for an efficient, accurate, interacting network; thus, the need for a more spontaneous system emanated. The Analytical Laboratory Computer System is designed to automate and streamline the generation and storage of this data and to increase the credibility of sample results. A 256 K byte Data General Eclipse C/300, a 62 K byte Hewlett-Packard 9845A, and 8 Tetronix 4023 terminals are being used to achieve this goal. The Eclipse is used for data input-output and the calculation and bias correction of laboratory results; the 9845 computer is used for data manipulation for quality control. Utilization of the data provides some powerful tools in such areas as quality control, data classification, and analyst/method performance evaluation. The simplicity and clarity of operating the system as well as the complexities of design and implementation are also discussed.

Thermal modeling of a nuclear waste repository is basic to most waste management predictive models. It is important that the modeling techniques accurately determine the time-dependent temperature distribution of the waste emplacement media. Recent modeling studies show that the time-dependent temperature distribution can be accurately modeled in the far-field using a 2-dimensional (2-D) planar numerical model; however, the near-field cannot be modeled accurately enough by either 2-D axisymmetric or 2-D planar numerical models for repositories in salt. The accuracy limits of 2-D modeling were defined by comparing results from 3-dimensional (3-D) TRUMP modeling with results from both 2-D axisymmetric and 2-D planar. Both TRUMP and ADINAT were employed as modeling tools. Two-dimensional results from the finite element code, ADINAT were compared with 2-D results from the finite difference code, TRUMP; they showed almost perfect correspondence in the far-field. This result adds substantially to confidence in future use of ADINAT and its companion stress code ADINA for thermal stress analysis. ADINAT was found to be somewhat sensitive to time step and mesh aspect ratio. 13 figures, 4 tables.

This document describes a computer program which calculates the most probable Solar Total Energy System (STES) market penetration and forecasts of energy displacement by geographic location (50 states) and by industrial application (140 industries) for seven time periods (from 1985 to 2015 in five year increments). The program is written in Fortran for the FTN compiler on The Aerospace Corporation's CDC 7600 computer. It consists of approximately 750 cards, including comments. This document contains a description of the program, its inputs and its outputs. Examples of program input and output as well as a sample deck structure are provided. A source listing appears in the appendix.

Calculations were made of the heating of hot (approx. 5 keV), overdense (10/sup 8/ critical density) deuterium plasmas by 1 cm microwaves with an incident power of 5 x 10/sup 16/ watts/cm/sup 2/. Dependence of the heating rate on the plasma temperature and the drift velocity of the surface was also studied. The power absorption is found to vary approximately as T/sup 1/2/.

A method for distribution transformer loss evaluation was derived. The total levelized annual cost method was used and was extended to account properly for conditions of energy cost inflation, peak load growth, and transformer changeout during the evaluation period. The loss costs included were the no-load and load power losses, no-load and load reactive losses, and the energy cost of regulation. The demand and energy components of loss costs were treated separately to account correctly for the diversity of load losses and energy cost inflation. An analysis was performed to find what level of transformer loss yields the minimum total levelized annual cost for a given kVA rating and a given set of load and cost parameters. Initial transformer costs as a function of no-load loss, load loss, and kVA were generated and used in the evaluation. Both single and multiple efficiency designs were considered. The total levelized annual costs of the two designs were compared. In each case the multiple efficiency design was less costly. A sensitivity analysis was performed to find the change in total levelized annual cost due to changes in the input parameters. Also, an analysis was conducted to determine the amount of energy required to …

Rogers Engineering was contracted to determine the technical feasibility and cost/benefit ratios for Pacific Gas and Electric Company to replace the iron-catalyst/peroxide/ caustic systems with surface condensers and Stretford H{sub 2}S abatement systems for Units 1 through 12 at the Geysers. This Milestone No.1 Report is a 6 week progress report and will not have the cost benefit analyses which is planned for in the Final Report. This report will focus only on Units 1 and-3, which are thought of as typical to Units 2 and 4 in our contract. The work performed analyzes the cooling water cycle for both units and determines the turbine operating back pressure as a function of cold water from the existing cooling towers to the new surface condensers. Any power penalty is noted and assessed to the respective turbine-generator with necessary definition for the reason in heat rate deterioration. The direction of Rogers Engineering Co.'s efforts was the conceptual system analysis for Units 1 and 3. But cooling tower performance differences between Units 1 and 2 influenced the similarity of, the cycle thermodynamics and power output at the generator for these two units. We therefore are reporting on Units One and Two. Units Three …

In this task the historical performance of powerplants in Illinois was examined and the opportunities for improved powerplant productivity in Illinois was determined. The four utilities considered were the major investor-owned electric generating utilities in Illinois, i.e., Central Illinois Light Co., (CILCO), Central Illinois Public Service (CIPS), Commonwealth Edison (CECO), and Illinois Power (IP). The major findings are: (1) for evaluation purposes, the equivalent availability was judged to be the most-appropriate measure; (2) in terms of powerplant productivity, IP is among the best in the nation and, in terms of productivity from large coal units, it ranks in the top five nationally; (3) in general, the performance of coal-fired units of CILCO and CECO have been below national averages and in some cases, significantly below; (4) a review of the trends in production of all Illinois units reveals that Illinois units as a group have been generally below national averages for the respective unit classes; (5) as noted in this and other studies, productivities of the nuclear plants in Illinois have been below the national average for all comparable nuclear plants; and (6) this analysis should be updated when national 1977 and 1978 Edison Electric Institute data become publicly available.

Particulate material collected by filtration from the north Equatorial Pacific Ocean has been analyzed for plutonium and other radionuclides. Different filter pore size, types of filter substrates, flow rates, and sample volumes were evaluated. Retention of /sup 239 +240/Pu was found to vary with the sample volume filtered and was not greatly affected by the type of filter substrate, flow rate, or porosity tested. About 7 +- 3% of the /sup 239 +240/Pu activity in north Equatorial Pacific surface water is found with the particulate material filtered from 120 liters of water, while less than 1% is retained on samples with volume of 20,000-70,000 liters. Clearly an understanding of these results is necessary to correctly assess the quantity of plutonium, other radionuclides and trace elements associated with and transported by particulate material in the marine environment.

A computer program which simulates the operations of a STES facility and evaluates its annualized costs and energy displacement is described. The program contains a dynamic model which simulates the interaction of the insolation and electrical and thermal demands on an hourly basis. The program is flexible enough to allow thousands of different configurations to be simulated under a wide variety of conditions. Moreover, with this program, the sizes of the STES components can be adjusted to maximize the return on invested capital or the savings in fossil fuels. The program can also be used to simulate conventional fossil fuel Total Energy (TE) systems and solar thermal energy systems for comparison with STES. The program is written in Fortran for the FTN compiler on The Aerospace Corporation's CDC 7600 computer. It consists of 9 routines and approximately 1300 cards, including comments. A description of the program, its inputs and its outputs are presented. Examples of program input and otput as well as a sample deck structure are provided. A source listing appears in the appendix.

The mass and kinetic energy distributions of fission fragments from the spontaneous fission of th newly discovered nuclide /sup 259/Md were obtained. /sup 259/Md was identified as the E. C. daughter of /sup 259/No, and was found to decay entirely (> 95%) by spontaneous fission with a 95-min half-life. From the kinetic energies measured for 397 pairs of coincident fragments, a mass distribution was derived that is symmetric with sigma = 13 amu. /sup 259/Md, together with /sup 258/Fm and /sup 259/Fm, form a select group of three nuclides whose mass division in spontaneous fission is highly symmetric. Unlike the total-kinetic-energy (TKE) distributions of /sup 258/Fm and /sup 259/Fm, which peak at approx. = to 240 MeV, this distribution for /sup 259/Md is broad and is 50 MeV lower in energy. Analysis of the mass and energy distributions shows that events near mass symmetry also exhibit a broad TKE distribution, with one-third of the symmetric events having TKEs less than 200 MeV. The associated of low TKEs with symmetric mass division in the fission of very heavy actinides is anomalous and inconsistent with theories based upon the emergence of fragment shells near the scission point. Either three-body fragmentation or peculiar …

This document is a user's guide for the STES Applications Model (SAM) which can be used to identify industrial applications which are good candidates for Solar Total Energy Systems (STES). SAM computes and ranks equivalent cost ratio and calculates fuel displacement potential by geographic location (50 states) and by industrial application (140 three digit SIC categories) for seven time periods (from 1985 to 2015 in five year increments). SAM is written in FORTRAN for the FTN compiler on the CDC 7600 computer.

The performance of a 5 MJ plasma focus is calculated using our two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (2-D MHD) code. Two configurations are discussed, a solid and a hollow anode. In the case of the hollow anode, we find an instability in the current sheath which has the characteristics of the short wave length sausage instability. As the current sheath reaches the axis, the numerical solution is seen to break down. Just before this time, plasma parameters take on the characteristic values rho/rho/sub 0/ = 143, kT/sup i/ = 7.4 keV, B/sub theta/ = 4.7 MG, and V/sub z/ = 60 cm/..mu..s for a zone with r = 0.2 mm. When the numerical solution breaks down, the code shows a splitting of the current sheath (from the axis to the anode) and the loss of a large amount of magnetic energy. Current-sheath stagnation is observed in the hollow anode configuration, also.