Three petroleum futures contracts are examined over a ten-year period from 1986 to 1996. Intertemporal changes in futures prices and the net open interest positions of three trader types are compared to determine what, if any, market timing ability the traders have. Seasonal variation is considered and a simple trading rule is adopted to determine the dollar-return potential for market participation and shed light on issues of market efficiency.

This dissertation examines whether Percs, Preferred Equity Redemption Cumulative Stocks, are properly priced regarding to the relevant securities, such as the underlying common stock, the long-term call option of the stock, and so on. Test results indicate that Percs were overpriced with respect to the equivalent packages composed of the relevant securities. Further tests on arbitrage restrictions show that transaction costs would prevent arbitrage profits. This dissertation also examines the market reactions to Percs offerings. Test results reveal that the market reactions to the announcement of Percs offering and the actual issuance are both significantly negative. Compared to the market reaction on common stock offering announcement, the market reaction on Percs offering announcement is weaker. The overpricing of Percs and the weaker reaction of the market suggest that Percs may have advantages in transaction costs, taxes and some corporate finance issues.

Standard and Poor's began publication of Credit Watch in November of 1981 as an early warning list for firms whose debt is under review for a possible rating change. This dissertation is composed of three essays which address various aspects of Credit Watch and the impact on shareholder wealth. The first essay uses a discriminant analysis model to classify the Credit Watch status of firms which engaged in mergers and acquisitions activity in 1991. The model correctly classifies 69.85% of the in-sample firms and 65.83% of the out of sample firms. The second essay examines whether the stock market reacts more strongly to trigger events which cause Credit Watch placements than to the actual placement. Significantly larger negative abnormal return are found around the trigger event than the placement. No evidence is found for the differential reaction evolving over time. The third essay examines firm specific and economy-wide factors which may be related to the strength of the abnormal stock return around the Credit Watch removal date. The removal return is found to be positively related to the number of trading days a firm remains on Credit Watch, negatively related to the number of updates regarding the firm released by …

When a stock is added into the S&P 500 Index, it is automatically "cross-listed" in the index derivative markets (i.e., S&P 500 Index futures and Index options). I examined the effects of such cross-listing on the trading volume and return volatility of the underlying component stocks. Traditional finance theory asserts that futures and "cash" markets are connected by arbitrage mechanism that brings both markets to equilibrium. When arbitrage opportunities arise, arbitrageurs buy (sell) the index portfolio and take short (long) positions in the corresponding index derivative contracts until prices return to theoretical levels. Such mechanical arbitrage trading tends to create large order flows that could be difficult for the market to absorb, resulting in price changes. Utilizing a list of S&P 500 index composition changes occurring over the period September 1976 to December 2005, I investigated the market-adjusted volume turnover ratios and return variances of the stocks being added to and deleted from the S&P 500, surrounding the effective day of index membership changes. My primary finding is that, after the introduction of the S&P 500 index futures and options contracts, stocks added to the S&P 500 experience significant increase in both trading volume and return volatility. However, deleted stocks …

This study attempts to resolve two important issues. First, it investigates the diversification benefit of crude oil for equities. Second, it examines whether or not crude oil derivatives transactions by oil and gas producers can change shareholders' wealth. With these two major goals in mind, I study the risk and return profile of crude oil, the value effect of crude oil derivatives transactions, and the systematic risk exposure effect of crude oil derivatives transactions. In contrast with previous studies, this study applies the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) methodology to measure the risk and return profile of crude oil. The results show that crude oil is negatively correlated with stocks so adding crude oil into a portfolio with equities can provide significant diversification benefits for the portfolio. Given the diversification benefit of crude oil mixed with equities, this study then examines the value effect of crude oil derivatives transactions by oil and gas producers. Differing from traditional corporate risk management literature, this study examines corporate derivatives transactions from the shareholders' portfolio perspective. The results show that crude oil derivatives transactions by oil and gas producers do impact value. If oil and gas producing companies stop shorting crude oil derivatives contracts, …

The objective of this study is to answer the following research question: How large is a diversified portfolio? Although previous work is abundant, very little progress has been made in answering this question since the seminal work of Evans and Archer (1968). This study proposes two approaches to address the research question. The first approach is to measure the rate of risk reduction as diversification increases. For the first approach, I identify two kinds of risks: (1) risk that portfolio returns vary across time (Evans and Archer (1968), and Campbell et al. (2001)); and (2) risk that returns vary across portfolios of the same size (Elton and Gruber (1977), and O'Neil (1997)). I show that the times series risk reaches an asymptote as portfolio size increases. Cross sectional risk, on the other hand, does not appears to reach an asymptote as portfolio size increases. The second approach consists of comparing portfolios' performance to a benchmark portfolio that is assumed to be diversified (Statman (1987)). I develop a performance index. The performance index is calculated, for any given test portfolio, as the ratio of the Sharpe-like measure of the test portfolio to the Sharpe-like measure of the benchmark portfolio that is …

Baker and Wurgler (2002) define a new theory of capital structure. In this theory capital structure evolves as the cumulative outcome of past attempts to time the equity market. Baker and Wurgler extend market timing theory to long-term capital structure, but their results do not clearly distinguish between the two versions of market timing: perceived mispricing and adverse selection. The main purpose of this dissertation is to empirically identify the relative importance of these two explanations. First, I retest Baker and Wurgler's theory by using insider trading as an alternative to market-to-book ratio to measure equity market timing. I also formally test the adverse selection model of the equity market timing: first by using post-issuance performance, and then by using three measures of adverse selection. The first two measures use estimates of adverse information costs based on the bid and ask prices, and the third measure is based on the close-to-offer returns. Based on received theory, a dynamic adverse selection model implies that higher adverse information costs lead to higher leverage. On the other hand, a naïve adverse selection model implies that negative inside information leads to lower leverage. The results are consistent with the equity market timing theory of …

The research questions investigated are: 1. Are the expected post-issue fractional holdings of the directors and officers, venture capitalists and institutions signals of firm value? 2. Are the expected post-issue fractional holdings of the directors and officers, venture capitalists and institutions signals of underpricing? and 3. Are the directors and officers, venture capitalists and institutions monitors of IPO investments? The signaling theory developed by Grinblatt and Hwang (1989) (GH) and the monitoring theory for IPO investments have been used to develop the hypotheses for this dissertation. Four factors make my methodology unique. These factors are: 1. I apply and test the GH IPO signaling model over a unique data set collected from the IPO prospectuses, proxy statements and annual reports; 2. I disaggregate the expected post-issue holdings of the different groups of pre-issue blockholders and insiders and hypothesizes that these individual groups represents signals of firm value and underpricing; 3. I hypothesize that these groups, in aggregate and separately, monitor IPO investments over the long term; And 4. I develop signaling and monitoring hypotheses to make predictions at the two stages of the IPO. The results show that firm value is positively related to the level of underpricing, at a …

In a 2004 study, Harvey, Lin and Roper argue that debt makers with a commitment to monitoring can create value for outside shareholders whenever information asymmetry and agency costs are pronounced. I investigate Harvey, Lin and Roper's claim for bank loans by empirically testing the effect of information asymmetry and direct agency costs on the abnormal returns of the borrowers' stock around the announcement of bank loans. I divide my study into two main sections. The first section tests whether three proxies of the direct agency costs of equity are equally significant in measuring the direct costs associated with outside equity agency problems. I find that the asset utilization ratio proxy is the most statistically significant proxy of the direct agency costs of equity using a Chow F-test statistic. The second main section of my dissertation includes and event study and a cross-sectional analysis. The event study results document significant and positive average abnormal returns of 1.01% for the borrowers' stock on the announcement day of bank loans. In the cross sectional analysis of the borrowers' average abnormal stock returns, I find that higher quality and more reputable banks/lenders provide a reliable certification to the capital market about the low …

Past literature attempts to resolve the issue of the motivation behind managers' choice of a given capital structure. Despite several decades of intensive research, there is still no consensus about which theory dominates capital structure decisions. The present study empirically investigates the relative importance of two prominent theories of capital structure- the trade-off and the pecking order theories by exploring the conditions under which each theory can explain the financing choices of firms. These conditions are defined along two dimensions: (i) a firm's degree of information asymmetry, and (ii) its observed leverage relative to target leverage. The results show that, in the short-run, pecking order theory has more explanatory power in explaining the financing choices of firms. The target leverage theory assumes limited importance: Over-leveraged firms, when faced with low adverse information, are more inclined to adapt to the trade-off policies. In the presence of high information asymmetry, however, firms appear to be more concerned about adverse selection costs and make financing decisions that are more consistent with the pecking order theory. An analysis of the market reaction to seasoned equity issuances during announcement periods reveals that firms with high information asymmetry are penalized more than firms with low information …

Recent increases in stock repurchases among U.S. corporations coupled with a historically low cost of debt since the Global Financial Crisis has created media speculation that firms in recent years are paying for their expanding share buyback programs with debt. Repurchasing stock by increasing leverage, instead of using internal funds, implies that managers may speculate on current low interest rate environments at the expense of shareholders. Recent studies find that stock repurchases are associated with reductions in future firm employment and investments such as capital expenditures and research and development expenses. This study expands on prior studies by evaluating how debt-financed stock repurchases affect firm investment, investigating the likelihood of these repurchases in low interest rate environments and assessing the effects on firm value. Results confirm that, in recent years, debt-financed repurchases have increased substantially and the probability of debt-financed repurchases increases in the presence of low interest rates. This relationship is especially pronounced in the years following the Global Financial Crisis. Debt-financed repurchases are associated with small reductions in firm investment; however, these reductions are significantly less after adjusting for industry conditions. Finally, there is little evidence that the method of financing repurchases affects firm value nor does it …

Since Engle and Granger formulated the concept of cointegration in 1987, the literature has extensively examined the unbiasedness of the commodity futures prices using the cointegration-based technique. Despite intense attention, many of the previous studies suffer from the contradicting empirical results. That is, the cointegration test and the stationarity test on the differential contradict each other. In marked contrast, my dissertation develops the no-arbitrage cost-of-carry model in the NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures market and tests stationarity of the spot-futures differential. It is demonstrated that the primary cause of the "cointegration paradox" is the model misspecifications resulting in omitted variable bias.

This dissertation comprises of three related essays in regard of puzzling negative book equity phenomenon among U.S. public firms. In essay 1, I present the evidence that there is an increasing trend of negative book equity firms over the past 50 years, from 0.3% up to over 5% among publicly traded firms in US. In contrast to previous research which generally classify these firms as distressed firms with highly likelihood of bankruptcy, I propose a new method to separate Healthy Negative Book Equity Firms (HNBEF) from relatively more distressed negative book equity firms. The results show that HNBEF have much higher net income and interest coverage ratio, they survive longer, and pay more dividends. More interestingly, these firms are often actively increase share repurchases and debt issuance. These facts, combined with their strong profitability, indicate that managers of these firms are actively increasing their leverage and choose to be negative book equity firms. To explain the existence of HNBEF, in essay 2, I investigate several possible reasons that may contribute to the extreme leverage of these firms. I find that HNBEF are substantially undervalued by their book assets as stated on the balance sheet. In addition, the value of intangible …

My dissertation consists of two essays on CFOs' promotion-based tournament incentives and performance-based equity incentives. The first essay examines the joint implications of CFOs' tournament incentives and equity incentives for firms' risk-taking. With the pay gap between the CEO and the CFO as the proxy for the CFO's tournament incentives, I find that the relationship between a firm's risk taking and the CFO's tournament incentives is non-monotonic. In particular, I show that below a certain level, increase in pay gap is associated with increase in firm risk taking (e.g., higher leverage, lower cash holding balance and higher R&D intensity). However, after reaching a certain level, the CEO-CFO pay gap negatively impacts risk-taking, as increase in pay gap is associated with lower leverage, higher cash holding balance and lower R&D intensity. With the CFO's pay-performance sensitivity as the proxy for the CFO's equity incentives, I find that the CFO's equity incentives negatively impact firm's R&D intensity, but have no significant impact on broader financial decisions such as capital structure and cash policy. Collectively, my findings indicate that CFO incentives play an important role in firm's risk-taking behaviors, and the effect of the CFO's tournament incentives is more pronounced. The second essay …

This study is an empirical examination of a new theory that links dividends to institutional ownership in a framework of both information signaling and agency costs. Under this theory put forth by Allen, Bernardo and Welch in 2000, dividends are paid out to attract tax-favored institutional investors, thereby signaling good firm quality and/or more efficient monitoring. This is based on the premise that institutions are considered sophisticated investors with superior ability and stronger incentive to be informed about the firm quality compared to retail investors. On the agency level, institutional investors display monitoring capabilities, and can detect and correct managerial pitfalls, thus their presence serves as an assurance that the firm will remain well run. The study provides a comprehensive analysis of the implications of the theory by testing various aspects of the relationship between dividends and institutional holdings. Unlike the prevalent literature on this topic, I give specific attention to the different types of institutional investors and their incentives to invest in dividend paying stocks. Moreover, I analyze the signaling and the agency effects on the market reaction to dividend initiations within the framework proposed by the theory. Finally, I test the smoothing effect institutions have on dividends by …

This study examines the comparative magnitude of disturbances in intraday data for exchange traded foreign exchange (FX) options. An in-depth time series analysis on the frequency and extent of discrepancies in the disturbances is conducted. The purpose of this study is twofold. First, using intraday data and trading volume, this study attempts to determine whether both put-call parity and lower boundary conditions consistently hold for exchange traded options written on U.S. dollar denominated options on the Euro trading on the Philadelphia Stock Exchange (PHLX). Second, this study attempts to investigate the magnitude of any discrepancies that may exist due to a temporary cessation of either put-call parity or lower boundary conditions. Intraday (tick-by-tick) bid prices, ask prices, and trading volume on U.S. dollar denominated European style call options and put options on the Euro are obtained. Option data is collected through a Structured Query Language (SQL) request from the Bloomberg database. Corresponding tick-by-tick spot rates for the underlying exchange rate are obtained for the same time period. Tick-by-tick 3-month Treasury bill rates are obtained to for use as the relevant risk-free interest rate. The primary data set spans an approximate one month period from 11/1/2011 to 12/6/2011. Call and option …

This dissertation consists of three essays: essay 1, Underwriting Use of Credit Information and Firm Performance ‐ An Empirical Study of Texas Property‐Liability Insurers, essay 2, Prediction of Ratings in Property‐Liability Industry when The Organizational Form Is Endogenous, and essay 3, A Discussion of Parsimonious Methods Predicting Insurance Companies Ratings. The purpose of the first essay is to investigate the influence of underwriting use of credit information on variation in insurers’ underwriting performance. Specifically, this study addresses the following two research questions: first, what firm‐level characteristics are associated with the insurers’ decision to use credit information in underwriting? second, is there a relationship between the use of credit information and variation in insurers’ underwriting performance? The empirical results indicate that larger insurance companies, companies having more business in personal auto insurance, and those with greater use of reinsurance are more likely to use credit information in underwriting. More importantly, the results indicate that use of credit information is associated with lower variation in underwriting performance, consistent with the hypothesis that use of credit information enables insurers to better predict their losses. The purpose of the second essay is to resolve the inconsistent relationship between the organizational forms (i.e., stock versus …

Informed traders trade options on underlying securities to lower transaction costs and increase financial leverage for price trend and variance strategies. Options markets play a significant role in price discovery by incorporating private information about future prices for an underlying security into option prices. I generate a new model-free volatility measure to calculate the "distance from arbitrage bounds" from minute-by-minute option series for the S&P 500 index and 30 individual underlying stocks. These iron butterfly arbitrage bounds (IBBs) use intraday call and put option prices from the Bloomberg database. Narrow and wide IBBs are expected to reveal the options market valuation of volatility by market participants. Data series is gathered by using successive one-minute intervals from the Bloomberg database. The data comprise the most recent bid and ask option prices and volumes. I collect S&P 500 index values and index options and use 30 underlying stock prices and option prices for the contracts that have the largest option trading volume during the sampling interval. These bid and ask prices reflect the information generated by intraday price pressures implied by S&P 500 index options or stock options. Consistent with the option micro-structure literature, I find that the IBB measure for actively …

Several studies have observed that stocks tend to drop by an amount that is less than the dividend on the ex-dividend day, the so-called ex-dividend day anomaly. However, there still remains a lack of consensus for a single explanation of this anomaly. Different from other studies, this dissertation attempts to answer the primary research question: How can investors make trading profits from the ex-dividend day anomaly and how much can they earn? With this goal, I examine the economic motivations of equity investors through four main hypotheses identified in the anomaly’s literature: the tax differential hypothesis, the short-term trading hypothesis, the tick size hypothesis, and the leverage hypothesis. While the U.S. ex-dividend anomaly is well studied, I examine a long data window (1975 to 2010) of Thailand data. The unique structure of the Thai stock market allows me to assess all four main hypotheses proposed in the literature simultaneously. Although I extract the sample data from two data sources, I demonstrate that the combined data are consistently sampled. I further construct three trading strategies: “daily return,” “lag one daily return,” and “weekly return” to alleviate the potential effect of irregular data observation. I find that the ex-dividend day anomaly exists …

Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator, Inc. (MISO) is a non-profit regional transmission organization (RTO) that oversees electricity production and transmission across thirteen states and one Canadian province. MISO also operates an electronic exchange for buying and selling electricity for each of its five regional hubs. MISO oversees two types of markets. The forward market, which is referred to as the day-ahead (DA) market, allows market participants to place demand bids and supply offers on electricity to be delivered at a specified hour the following day. The equilibrium price, known as the locational marginal price (LMP), is determined by MISO after receiving sale offers and purchase bids from market participants. MISO also coordinates a spot market, which is known as the real-time (RT) market. Traders in the real-time market must submit bids and offers by thirty minutes prior to the hour for which the trade will be executed. After receiving purchase and sale offers for a given hour in the real time market, MISO then determines the LMP for that particular hour. The existence of the DA and RT markets allows producers and retailers to hedge against the large fluctuations that are common in electricity prices. Hedge ratios on the MISO …

This study provide empirical evidence whether bias in the standard errors of Jensen’s alpha explains conflicting results in the extant literature in real estate funds. Significant alphas in real estate mutual funds and REITs are compared with heteroskedasticity consistent covariance matrix estimators (HC1, HC2 and HC3), Newey-West standard errors, a robust regression tempering the effect of high leverage points, a GARCH model, and a HC3 adjusted wild bootstrap. In the analysis of real estate mutual funds and a separate sample set of REITs, the HCCME had a minimal impact attenuating the number of firms with excess returns. Contrary to expectations the differences from HC1 to HC2 to HC3 were also negligible. The Newey-West standard error provided highly variable results when compared with the OLS results particularly in the REIT sample. Of the techniques to adjust for bias in the standard error, the wild bootstrap with HC3 adjustment to the standard error provided the most conservative result to the number of real estate mutual funds and REITs with significant alphas. The co-movement of real estate funds suggests common exogenous influences. Including state variables such as the changes in unexpected inflation, term spread, default spread, market skewness and industrial production growth in …

This dissertation identifies key determinants of outbound cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) by emerging Asian acquirers during 2001-2012. Using a zero-inflated model that takes into account different mechanisms governing country pairs that never engage in cross-border M&As and country pairs that actively participate in cross-border M&As, I uncover unique patterns for emerging Asian acquirers. Emerging Asian acquirers originate from countries with lower corporate tax rates than those countries where their targets are located. Furthermore, the negative impact of an international double tax burden is significantly larger than that found in previous studies. While country governance differences and geographical and cultural differences are important determinants of international M&As, relative valuation effects are muted. Coefficients of these determinants vary substantially, depending on whether targets are located in developing or advanced nations. Also, determinants differ considerably between active and non-active players in cross-border M&As. Moreover, comparisons of empirical models illustrate that estimating a non-linear model and taking into account both the bounded nature and non-normal distributions of fractional response variables lead to different inferences from those drawn from a linear model estimated by the ordinary least squares method. Overall, emerging Asian acquirers approach the deals differently from patterns documented in developed markets. So, …

The initial matching relationships between underwriters and bonds/issuing firms and the certification quality of underwriters, as determined by changes in the issuing firm’s financial strength post issue, are the two primary research topics in this dissertation. Based on total underwriter syndicate market share, two distinct categories, low market power (LMP) syndicates and high market power (HMP) syndicates were defined. Firm financial strength is examined based on a new factor developed in this research. A comparison of the two underwriting categories, or pools, indicates that the HMP underwriters take on firms of lower initial financial strength and additionally, the issuing firms decline more in financial strength two years following bond issuance than do firms using LMP underwriters. Notwithstanding these results, the more interesting findings are the relationships within each of these pools. In the LMP pool of underwriters, financially stronger firms used the larger LMPs to underwrite their bonds, while the weaker firms used smaller LMPs. In contrast, among HMP underwriters, the largest HMPs aligned with the firms of relatively lower financial strength. The relationships in both pools reverse when changes in financial strength are examined. Larger LMPs are associated with greater issuing firm financial decline while larger HMPs correlate with …