Terrorist attacks using an aerosolized pathogen preparation have gained credibility as a national security concern since the anthrax attacks of 2001. The ability to characterize the parameters of such attacks, i.e., to estimate the number of people infected, the time of infection, the average dose received, and the rate of disease spread in contemporary American society (for contagious diseases), is important when planning a medical response. For non-contagious diseases, we address the characterization problem by formulating a Bayesian inverse problem predicated on a short time-series of diagnosed patients exhibiting symptoms. To keep the approach relevant for response planning, we limit ourselves to 3.5 days of data. In computational tests performed for anthrax, we usually find these observation windows sufficient, especially if the outbreak model employed in the inverse problem is accurate. For contagious diseases, we formulated a Bayesian inversion technique to infer both pathogenic transmissibility and the social network from outbreak observations, ensuring that the two determinants of spreading are identified separately. We tested this technique on data collected from a 1967 smallpox epidemic in Abakaliki, Nigeria. We inferred, probabilistically, different transmissibilities in the structured Abakaliki population, the social network, and the chain of transmission. Finally, we developed an individual-based …

This report provides research highlights from the Advanced Photon Source (APS). Although these highlights represent less than 10% of the published work from the APS in 2007, they give a flavor of the diversity and impact of user research at the facility. In the strategic planning the aim is to foster the growth of existing user communities and foresee new areas of research. This coming year finds the APS engaged in putting together, along with the users, a blueprint for the next five years, and making the case for a set of prioritized investments in beamlines, the accelerator, and infrastructure, each of which will be transformational in terms of scientific impact. As this is written plans are being formulated for an important user workshop on October 20-21, 2008, to prioritize strategic plans. The fruit from past investments can be seen in this report. Examples include the creation of a dedicated beamline for x-ray photon correlation spectroscopy at Sector 8, the evolution of dedicated high-energy x-ray scattering beamlines at sectors 1 and 11, a dedicated imaging beamline at Sector 32, and new beamlines for inelastic scattering and powder diffraction. A single-pulse facility has been built in collaboration with Sector 14 (BioCARS) …