These proceedings contain papers prepared for the 24th Seismic Research Review: Nuclear Explosion Monitoring: Innovation and Integration, held 17-19 September, 2002 in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. These papers represent the combined research related to ground-based nuclear explosion monitoring funded by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), and other invited sponsors. The scientific objectives of the research are to improve the United States capability to detect, locate, and identify nuclear explosions. The purpose of the meeting is to provide the sponsoring agencies, as well as potential users, an opportunity to review research accomplished during the preceding year and to discuss areas of investigation for the coming year. For the researchers, it provides a forum for the exchange of scientific information toward achieving program goals, and an opportunity to discuss results and future plans. Paper topics include: seismic regionalization and calibration; detection and location of sources; wave propagation from source to receiver; the nature of seismic sources, including mining practices; hydroacoustic, infrasound, and radionuclide methods; on-site inspection; and data processing.

The research described in this report developed the theoretical and conceptual framework for understanding, recognizing, and anticipating the origins, dynamic mechanisms, perceptions, and social structures of Islamic social reform movements in the Muslim homeland and in diaspora communities. This research has revealed valuable insights into the dynamic mechanisms associated with reform movements and, as such, offers the potential to provide indications and warnings of impending violence. This study produced the following significant findings: (1) A framework for understanding Islamic radicalization in the context of Social Movement Theory was developed and implemented. This framework provides a causal structure for the interrelationships among the myriad features of a social movement. (2) The degree to which movement-related activity shows early diffusion across multiple social contexts is a powerful distinguisher of successful and unsuccessful social movements. Indeed, this measurable appears to have significantly more predictive power than volume of such activity and also more power than various system intrinsics. (3) Significant social movements can occur only if both the intra-context 'infectivity' of the movement exceeds a certain threshold and the inter-context interactions associated with the movement occur with a frequency that is larger than another threshold. Note that this is reminiscent of, and significantly …

In the last ten years, since the break-up of the Soviet Union, remarkable progress in arms control and disarmament has occurred. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the completion of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), and the Chemical Weapons Treaty (CWC) are indicative of the great strides made in the non- proliferation arena. Simultaneously, the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), the Conventional Forces Treaty in Europe (CFE), and the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaties (START), all associated with US-Soviet Union (now Russia) relations have assisted in redefining European relations and the security landscape. Finally, it now appears that progress is in the offing in developing enhanced compliance measures for the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC). In sum, all of these achievements have set the stage for the next round of arms control activities, which may lead to a much broader, and perhaps more diffused multilateral agenda. In this new and somewhat unpredictable international setting, arms control and disarmament issues will require solutions that are both more creative and innovative than heretofore.

On February 2, the ''New York Times'' reported that the Pentagon has formed a nuclear forensics team tasked with identifying the terrorist attackers should the United States be hit with a nuclear bomb. Adapting nuclear technology to the forensics of exploded nuclear weapons is an old but rapidly evolving field. It dates back to at least 1949, when analysis of airborne debris, retrieved at high altitude off the coast of China, convinced President Harry Truman that the Soviet Union had exploded a nuclear device on the steppes of central Asia. The technology is neither new nor has it been particularly secret, but the formation of a national nuclear forensics team was newsworthy and a useful development. An international team, however, would be even better. Although Washington has naturally focused on preventing a nuclear terrorism attack in the United States, a U.S. city is not necessarily the most likely target for nuclear terrorists. It is doubtful that a terrorist organization would be able to acquire a U.S. nuclear device and even more doubtful that it would acquire one on U.S. soil. Accordingly, if a terrorist organization does get its hands on a fission device, it is likely that it will do …

An exceptional number of Middle Eastern and North African nations have recently expressed interest in developing nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. Many of these countries have explored nuclear research in limited ways in the past, but the current focused interest and application of resources towards developing nuclear-generated electricity and nuclear-powered desalination plants is unprecedented. Consequently, questions arise in response to this emerging trend: What instigated this interest? To what end(s) will a nuclear program be applied? Does the country have adequate technical, political, legislative, nonproliferation, and safety infrastructure required for the capability desired? If so, what are the next steps for a country in preparation for a future nuclear program? And if not, what collaboration efforts are possible with the United States or others? This report provides information on the capabilities and interests of 13 countries in the region in nuclear energy programs in light of safety, nonproliferation and security concerns. It also provides information useful for determining potential for offering technical collaboration, financial aid, and/or political support.

The report presents a summary of international perceptions and beliefs about US nuclear policy, focusing on four countries--China, Iran, Pakistan and Germany--chosen because they span the spectrum of states with which the United States has relationships. A paradox is pointed out: that although the goal of US nuclear policy is to make the United States and its allies safer through a policy of deterrence, international perceptions of US nuclear policy may actually be making the US less safe by eroding its soft power and global leadership position. Broadly held perceptions include a pattern of US hypocrisy and double standards--one set for the US and its allies, and another set for all others. Importantly, the US nuclear posture is not seen in a vacuum, but as one piece of the United States behavior on the world stage. Because of this, the potential direct side effects of any negative international perceptions of US nuclear policy can be somewhat mitigated, dependent on other US policies and actions. The more indirect and long term relation of US nuclear policy to US international reputation and soft power, however, matters immensely to successful multilateral and proactive engagement on other pressing global issues.

This report discusses how the US can play a productive mediating role in South Asia by engaging India and Pakistan in an international forum to manage nuclear weapons, as Edward Teller advocated. India and Pakistan have developed their nuclear capabilities because they fear their neighbors, not because they want to threaten fear their neighbors, not because they want to threaten the US. The appropriate response for the US, therefore, is diplomatic engagement and negotiations. In addition to the international approach, encouragement and facilitation of regional and bilateral interactions will also be important. Formal arms control agreements have been reached, but less formal confidence-building measures, and unilateral security pledges may well be combined to form a more secure strategic environment in South Asia than a nuclear armed confrontation across the porous South Asian border.

The US consumption of crude oil resources has been a steadily growing indicator of the vitality and strength of the US economy. At the same time import diversity has also been a rapidly developing dimension of the import picture. In the early 1970`s, embargoes of crude oil from Organization of Producing and Exporting Countries (OPEC) created economic and political havoc due to a significant lack of diversity and a unique set of economic, political and domestic regulatory circumstances. The continued rise of imports has again led to concerns over the security of our crude oil resource but threats to this system must be considered in light of the diversity and current setting of imported oil. This report develops several important issues concerning vulnerability to the disruption of oil imports: (1) The Middle East is not the major supplier of oil to the United States, (2) The US is not vulnerable to having its entire import stream disrupted, (3) Even in stable countries, there exist vulnerabilities to disruption of the export stream of oil, (4) Vulnerability reduction requires a focus on international solutions, and (5) DOE program and policy development must reflect the requirements of the diverse supply. Does this increasing …

The purpose of this report is to present an overview of Philippines energy planning and policy and to analyze its energy resources and economic developments. Geography, population, geothermal reserves, coal, oil industry, electricity, and renewable energy are the major topics included in the report. A chapter is focused on national economy and energy policy. 40 tabs., 2 figs.

Country Analysis Briefs: 1994 is a compilation of country profiles prepared by the Energy Markets and Contingency Information Division (EMCID) of the Office of Energy Markets and End Use. EMCID maintains Country Analysis Briefs (CABs) for specific countries or geographical areas that are important to world energy markets. As a general rule, CABs are prepared for all members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), major non-OPEC oil producers (i.e., the North Sea, Russia), major energy transit areas (i.e., Ukraine), and other areas of current interest to energy analysts and policy makers. As of January 1995, EMCID maintained over 40 CABs, updated on an annual schedule and subject to revision as events warrant. This report includes 25 CABs updated during 1994. All CABs contain a profile section, a map showing the country`s location, and a narrative section. The profile section includes outlines of the country`s economy, energy sector, and environment. The narrative provides further information and discussion of these topics. Some CABs also include a detailed map displaying locations of major oil and gas fields, pipelines, ports, etc. These maps were created as a result of special individual requests and so are not typically a standard feature of the …

There is no doubt that al-Qaida and its affiliates have displayed, and continue to display, an acute interest in attacking targets that are considered to be important components of the infrastructure of the United States. What has not thus far been carried out, however, is an in-depth examination of the basic nature, historical evolution, and present scope of the organization's objectives that might help government personnel develop sound policy recommendations and analytical indicators to assist in detecting and interdicting plots of this nature. This study was completed with the financial support of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, through a project sponsored by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate. It is specifically intended to increase counterterrorism analysts understanding of certain features of al-Qaida's strategy and operations in order to facilitate the anticipation and prevention of attacks directed against our most critical infrastructures. The procedure adopted herein has involved consulting a wide variety of source materials that bear on the topic, ranging from sacred religious texts and historical accounts to al-Qaida-linked materials and the firsthand testimony of captured members of the group. It has also intentionally combined multiple approaches, including exploring the more esoteric religion-historical referents that have …

The Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests in May 1998 triggered a full-blown nuclear debate. For the first time, hard-liners, moderates, and pacifists engaged in an extensive public discussion that helped to make the people of Pakistan more sensitive to the dangers of nuclear competition. Pakistan's concerns about its conventional military inferiority, both in the present and future, and the belief that nuclear capability would deter India from exerting its superior military strength, constituted the bedrock of its perception on the nuclear issue. Ofilcial Pakistani statements, both immediately after the nuclear tests and later, have advocated restraint on the issue of nuclearization, indicating cognizance of the importance of avoiding a regional nuclear arms competition, both for security and economic reasons. This paper suggests a variety of nonweaponization and nondeployment options that would serve the security interests of India and Pakistan. Besides preventing a hair-trigger situation, these options could reduce the financial and logistical burden of ensuring the safety and security of nuclear weapons as well as lower strategic threat-perceptions.

This study began in April of 2001 to address the question of what deterrence should look like in the future. This section presents a brief synopsis of the study--a longer, more comprehensive report follows. This study presents four futures as a tool for planners who must think ahead fifteen years or more, rather than a prediction of the future. None of the four futures will emerge in just the way that has been described. Fifteen years from now, some mix of these futures is more likely, or perhaps we will see a trend toward one future, but with the possibility that any of the other three could appear, perhaps quite swiftly.

The succession of nuclear tests by India and Pakistan in May 1998 has changed the nature of their missile rivalry, which is only one of numerous manifestations of their relationship as hardened adversaries, deeply sensitive to each other's existing and evolving defense capabilities. The political context surrounding this costly rivalry remains unmediated by arms control measures or by any nascent prospect of detente. As a parallel development, sensible voices in both countries will continue to talk of building mutual confidence through openness to avert accidents, misjudgments, and misinterpretations. To facilitate a future peace process, this paper offers possible suggestions for stabilization that could be applied to India's and Pakistan's missile situation. Appendices include descriptions of existing missile agreements that have contributed to better relations for other countries as well as a list of the cooperative monitoring technologies available to provide information useful in implementing subcontinent missile regimes.

Since the 2020 Vision project began in 1996, students from participating schools have completed and submitted a variety of scenarios describing potential world and regional conditions in the year 2020 and their possible effect on US national security. This report summarizes the students' views and describes trends observed over the course of the 2020 Vision project's five years. It also highlights the main organizational features of the project. An analysis of thematic trends among the scenarios showed interesting shifts in students' thinking, particularly in their views of computer technology, US relations with China, and globalization. In 1996, most students perceived computer technology as highly beneficial to society, but as the year 2000 approached, this technology was viewed with fear and suspicion, even personified as a malicious, uncontrollable being. Yet, after New Year's passed with little disruption, students generally again perceived computer technology as beneficial. Also in 1996, students tended to see US relations with China as potentially positive, with economic interaction proving favorable to both countries. By 2000, this view had transformed into a perception of China emerging as the US' main rival and ''enemy'' in the global geopolitical realm. Regarding globalization, students in the first two years of the …

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Nuclear weapon arms control treaty verification is a key aspect of any agreement between signatories to establish that the terms and conditions spelled out in the treaty are being met. Historically, arms control negotiations have focused more on the rules and protocols for reducing the numbers of warheads and delivery systems - sometimes resorting to complex and arcane procedures for counting forces - in an attempt to address perceived or real imbalances in a nation's strategic posture that could lead to instability. Verification procedures are generally defined in arms control treaties and supporting documents and tend to focus on technical means and measures designed to ensure that a country is following the terms of the treaty and that it is not liable to engage in deception or outright cheating in an attempt to circumvent the spirit and the letter of the agreement. As the Obama Administration implements the articles, terms, and conditions of the recently ratified and entered-into-force New START treaty, there are already efforts within and outside of government to move well below the specified New START levels of 1550 warheads, 700 deployed strategic delivery vehicles, and 800 deployed and nondeployed strategic launchers (Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) silos, Submarine-Launched …

The Center for Security and Technology Studies was established at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to support long-range technical studies on issues of importance to US national security. An important goal of the Center is to bring together Laboratory staff and the broader outside community through a program of technical studies, visitors, symposia, seminars, workshops, and publications. With this in mind, the Center and LLNL`s Defense Systems Program sponsored a conference on Managing Nuclear Weapons in a Changing World held on November 17--18,1992. The first day of the meeting focused on nuclear weapons issues in the major geographical areas of the world. On the second day, the conference participants discussed what could be done to manage, control, and account for nuclear weapons in this changing world. Each of the talks and the concluding panel discussion are being indexed as separate documents.

The insurance industry can play a material role indecreasing the vulnerability of developing countries and economies intransition to weather-related natural disasters while simultaneouslysupporting both its own market-based objectives and the objectives ofsustainable development. Although insurance is not a "silver bullet" forthe problems posed by natural disasters in emerging markets,public-private partnerships can enhance insurance's ability to spread therisks and manage the costs of weather-related disasters as well as toincrease the pool of people who have access to coverage. (For simplicityin this report, the phrase "emerging markets" is intended to encompassdeveloping countries and economies in transition.) Promising strategiesfor emerging markets involve establishing innovative products and systemsfor delivering insurance and using technologies and practices that bothreduce vulnerability to disaster-related insurance losses and supportsustainable development (including reducing greenhouse gas emissions).These strategies can enhance sustainable development efforts and increasethe insurability of risks, making insurance markets in emerging marketsmore viable. Emerging markets are especially vulnerable to extremeweather events, which impede development by causing physical damage,compromising human and ecosystem health, diverting scarce resources todisaster relief and recovery, and deterring future investment andinsurance availability by amplifying the risks faced by foreigninterests. An average of 300 million people are affected or killed eachyear by weather-related disasters in emerging markets. …

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According to international relations theory, deterrence can be used as a tool to achieve stability between potentially hostile nations. India and Pakistan's long history of periodic crises raises the question of how they can achieve deterrence stability. 'Transparency' describes the flow of information between parties and plays a key role in establishing a deterrence relationship. This paper studies the balance needed between opacity and transparency in nuclear topics for the maintenance of deterrence stability between India and Pakistan. States with nuclear weapons are postulated to implement transparency in four categories: potential, capability, intent, and resolve. The study applies these categories to the nuclear components of the ongoing India-Pakistan Composite Dialogue Working Group for Peace and Security including CBMs. To focus our efforts, we defined four scenarios to characterize representative strategic/military/political conditions. The scenarios are combinations of these two sets of opposite poles: competition - cooperation; extremism - moderation (to be understood primarily in a religious/nationalistic sense). We describe each scenario in terms of select focal areas (nuclear doctrine, nuclear command and control, nuclear stockpile, nuclear delivery/defensive systems, and conventional force posture). The scenarios help frame the realm of possibilities, and have been described in terms of expected conditions for the …

In 2009, the Nonproliferation Graduate Fellowship Program (NGFP) completed its 16th successful year in support of the NNSA’s mission by developing future leaders in nonproliferation and promoting awareness of career opportunities. We provide this annual report to review program activities from June 2008 through May 2009 - the fellowship term for the Class of 2008. Contents include: Welcome Letter Introduction The NGFP Team Program Management Highlights Class of 2008 Incoming Fellows Orientation Travel Career Development Management of the Fellows Performance Highlights Closing Ceremony Encore Performance Where They Are Now Alumnus Career Highlights: Christine Buzzard Class of 2009 Applicant Database Upgrades Fall Recruitment Activities Interviews Hiring and Clearances Introducing the Class of 2009 Class of 2010 Recruitment Strategy On the Horizon Appendix A: Class of 2009 Fellows

In 2009, the Nonproliferation Graduate Fellowship Program (NGFP) completed its 17th successful year in support of the NNSA’s mission by developing future leaders in nonproliferation and promoting awareness of career opportunities. This annual report to reviews program activities from June 2009 through May 2010 - the fellowship term for the Class of 2009. Contents include: Welcome Letter (Mission Driven: It’s all about results), Introduction, Structure of the NGFP, Program Management Highlights, Annual Lifecycle, Class of 2009 Incoming Fellows, Orientation, Global Support of the Mission, Career Development, Management of the Fellows, Performance Highlights, Closing Ceremony, Where They Are Now, Alumni Highlight - Mission Success: Exceptional Leaders from the NGFP, Class of 2009 Fall Recruitment Activities, Established Partnerships, Face-to-Face, Recruiting Results, Interviews, Hiring and Clearances, Introducing the Class of 2010, Class of 2011 Recruitment Strategy, On the Horizon, Appendix A: Class of 2010 Fellow Biographies

This country energy profile provides energy and economic information about South Africa. Areas covered include: Economics, demographics, and environment; Energy situation; Energy structure; Energy investment opportunities; Department of Energy (DOE) programs in South Africa; and a listing of International aid to South Africa.