Abstract Probabilistic reasoning under uncertainty suits well to analysis of disease dynamics. The stochastic nature of disease progression is modeled by applying the principles of Bayesian learning. Bayesian learning predicts the disease progression, including prevalence and incidence, for a geographic region and demographic composition. Public health resources, prioritized by the order of risk levels of the population, will efficiently minimize the disease spread and curtail the epidemic at the earliest. A Bayesian network representing the outbreak of influenza and pneumonia in a geographic region is ported to a newer region with different demographic composition. Upon analysis for the newer region, the corresponding prevalence of influenza and pneumonia among the different demographic subgroups is inferred for the newer region. Bayesian reasoning coupled with disease timeline is used to reverse engineer an influenza outbreak for a given geographic and demographic setting. The temporal flow of the epidemic among the different sections of the population is analyzed to identify the corresponding risk levels. In comparison to spread vaccination, prioritizing the limited vaccination resources to the higher risk groups results in relatively lower influenza prevalence. HIV incidence in Texas from 1989-2002 is analyzed using demographic based epidemic curves. Dynamic Bayesian networks are integrated with …

Susceptibles-infectives-removals (SIR) and its derivatives are the classic mathematical models for the study of infectious diseases in epidemiology. In order to model and simulate epidemics of an infectious disease, a global stochastic field simulation paradigm (GSFS) is proposed, which incorporates geographic and demographic based interactions. The interaction measure between regions is a function of population density and geographical distance, and has been extended to include demographic and migratory constraints. The progression of diseases using GSFS is analyzed, and similar behavior to the SIR model is exhibited by GSFS, using the geographic information systems (GIS) gravity model for interactions. The limitations of the SIR and similar models of homogeneous population with uniform mixing are addressed by the GSFS model. The GSFS model is oriented to heterogeneous population, and can incorporate interactions based on geography, demography, environment and migration patterns. The progression of diseases can be modeled at higher levels of fidelity using the GSFS model, and facilitates optimal deployment of public health resources for prevention, control and surveillance of infectious diseases.

As bandwidth constraints on LAN/WAN environments decrease, the demand for distributed services will continue to increase. In particular, the proliferation of user-level applications requiring high-capacity distributed file storage systems will demand that such services be universally available. At the same time, the advent of high-speed networks have made the deployment of application and communication solutions based upon an Intelligent Mobile Agent (IMA) framework practical. Agents have proven to present an ideal development paradigm for the creation of autonomous large-scale distributed systems, and an agent-based communication scheme would facilitate the creation of independently administered distributed file services. This thesis thus outlines an architecture for such a distributed file system based upon an IMA communication framework.

Publicly available datasets in health science are often large and observational, in contrast to experimental datasets where a small number of data are collected in controlled experiments. Variables' causal relationships in the observational dataset are yet to be determined. However, there is a significant interest in health science to discover and analyze causal relationships from health data since identified causal relationships will greatly facilitate medical professionals to prevent diseases or to mitigate the negative effects of the disease. Recent advances in Computer Science, particularly in Bayesian networks, has initiated a renewed interest for causality research. Causal relationships can be possibly discovered through learning the network structures from data. However, the number of candidate graphs grows in a more than exponential rate with the increase of variables. Exact learning for obtaining the optimal structure is thus computationally infeasible in practice. As a result, heuristic approaches are imperative to alleviate the difficulty of computations. This research provides effective and efficient learning tools for local causal discoveries and novel methods of learning causal structures with a combination of background knowledge. Specifically in the direction of constraint based structural learning, polynomial-time algorithms for constructing causal structures are designed with first-order conditional independence. Algorithms of …

Extensive research has been conducted by the grid community to enable large-scale collaborations in pre-configured environments. grid collaborations can vary in scale and motivation resulting in a coarse classification of grids: national grid, project grid, enterprise grid, and volunteer grid. Despite the differences in scope and scale, all the traditional grids in practice share some common assumptions. They support mutually collaborative communities, adopt a centralized control for membership, and assume a well-defined non-changing collaboration. To support grid applications that do not confirm to these assumptions, we propose the concept of ad hoc grids. In the context of this research, we propose a novel architecture for ad hoc grids that integrates a suite of component frameworks. Specifically, our architecture combines the community management framework, security framework, abstraction framework, quality of service framework, and reputation framework. The overarching objective of our integrated architecture is to support a variety of grid applications in a self-controlled fashion with the help of a self-organizing ad hoc community. We introduce mechanisms in our architecture that successfully isolates malicious elements from the community, inherently improving the quality of grid services and extracting deterministic quality assurances from the underlying infrastructure. We also emphasize on the technology-independence of our …

This dissertation presents a data-driven computational epidemic framework to simulate disease epidemics at global mass gatherings. The annual Muslim pilgrimage to Makkah, Saudi Arabia is used to demonstrate the simulation and analysis of various disease transmission scenarios throughout the different stages of the event from the arrival to the departure of international participants. The proposed agent-based epidemic model efficiently captures the demographic, spatial, and temporal heterogeneity at each stage of the global event of Hajj. Experimental results indicate the substantial impact of the demographic and mobility patterns of the heterogeneous population of pilgrims on the progression of the disease spread in the different stages of Hajj. In addition, these simulations suggest that the differences in the spatial and temporal settings in each stage can significantly affect the dynamic of the disease. Finally, the epidemic simulations conducted at the different stages in this dissertation illustrate the impact of the differences between the duration of each stage in the event and the length of the infectious and latent periods. This research contributes to a better understanding of epidemic modeling in the context of global mass gatherings to predict the risk of disease pandemics caused by associated international travel. The computational modeling and …

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Daily newspaper from Houston, Texas that includes local, state and national news along with extensive advertising.

Daily newspaper from Houston, Texas that includes local, state and national news along with extensive advertising.