The outbreak of the Ebola virus was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organisation (WHO). Due to the complex nature of the outbreak, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had created interim guidance for monitoring people potentially exposed to Ebola and for evaluating their intended travel and restricting the movements of carriers when needed. Tools to evaluate the risk of individuals and groups of individuals contracting the disease could mitigate the growing anxiety and fear. The goal is to understand and analyze the nature of risk an individual would face when he/she comes in contact with a carrier. This thesis presents a tool that makes use of contextual data intelligence to predict the risk factor of individuals who come in contact with the carrier.

This dissertation presents a data-driven computational epidemic framework to simulate disease epidemics at global mass gatherings. The annual Muslim pilgrimage to Makkah, Saudi Arabia is used to demonstrate the simulation and analysis of various disease transmission scenarios throughout the different stages of the event from the arrival to the departure of international participants. The proposed agent-based epidemic model efficiently captures the demographic, spatial, and temporal heterogeneity at each stage of the global event of Hajj. Experimental results indicate the substantial impact of the demographic and mobility patterns of the heterogeneous population of pilgrims on the progression of the disease spread in the different stages of Hajj. In addition, these simulations suggest that the differences in the spatial and temporal settings in each stage can significantly affect the dynamic of the disease. Finally, the epidemic simulations conducted at the different stages in this dissertation illustrate the impact of the differences between the duration of each stage in the event and the length of the infectious and latent periods. This research contributes to a better understanding of epidemic modeling in the context of global mass gatherings to predict the risk of disease pandemics caused by associated international travel. The computational modeling and …

Epidemiologists engage in the study of the distribution and determinants of health-related states or events in human populations. Eventually, they will apply that study to prevent and control problems and contingencies associated with the health of the population. Due to the spread of new pathogens and the emergence of new bio-terrorism threats, it has become imperative to develop new and expand existing techniques to equip public health providers with robust tools to predict and control health-related crises. In this dissertation, I explore the effects caused in the disease dynamics by the differences in individuals’ physiology and social/behavioral characteristics. Multiple computational and mathematical models were developed to quantify the effect of those factors on spatial and temporal variations of the disease epidemics. I developed statistical methods to measure the effects caused in the outbreak dynamics by the incorporation of heterogeneous demographics and social interactions to the individuals of the population. Specifically, I studied the relationship between demographics and the physiological characteristics of an individual when preparing for an infectious disease epidemic.

This dissertation provides an innovative mechanism to collaborate two geographically separated people on a physical task and a novel method to measure Complexity Index (CI) and calculate Minimal Complexity Index (MCI) of a collaboration protocol. The protocol is represented as a structure, and the information content of it is measured in bits to understand the complex nature of the protocol. Using the complexity metrics, one can analyze the performance of a collaborative system and a collaboration protocol. Security and privacy of the consumers are vital while seeking remote help; this dissertation also provides a novel authorization framework for dynamic access control of resources on an input-constrained appliance used for completing the physical task. Using the innovative Collaborative Appliance for REmote-help (CARE) and with the support of a remotely located expert, fifty-nine subjects with minimal or no prior mechanical knowledge are able to elevate a car for replacing a tire in an average time of six minutes and 53 seconds and with an average protocol complexity of 171.6 bits. Moreover, thirty subjects with minimal or no prior plumbing knowledge are able to change the cartridge of a faucet in an average time of ten minutes and with an average protocol complexity …

Traditional Public Health decision-support can benefit from the Web and social media revolution. This dissertation presents approaches to mining social media benefiting public health epidemiology. Through discovery and analysis of trends in Influenza related blogs, a correlation to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) influenza-like-illness patient reporting at sentinel health-care providers is verified. A second approach considers personal beliefs of vaccination in social media. A vaccine for human papillomavirus (HPV) was approved by the Food and Drug Administration in May 2006. The virus is present in nearly all cervical cancers and implicated in many throat and oral cancers. Results from automatic sentiment classification of HPV vaccination beliefs are presented which will enable more accurate prediction of the vaccine's population-level impact. Two epidemic models are introduced that embody the intimate social networks related to HPV transmission. Ultimately, aggregating these methodologies with epidemic and social network modeling facilitate effective development of strategies for targeted interventions.