This report summarizes the main findings of a Center for National Security Studies (CNSS) project that examined how a number of nations other than the United States have reacted to the course and outcome of the Persian Gulf War of 1991. The project was built around studies of key countries on which the Gulf War might reasonably be expected to have had a significant impact: Argentina, the ASEAN states, Brazil, China, Cuba, Egypt, France, Germany, India, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Libya, North Korea, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Spain, Syria, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, Vietnam, and the states of the former Yugoslavia. These country studies were written by well-recognized independent experts following a common set of guidelines provided by CNSS. When the country studies were completed, they were reviewed and supplemented through a series of peer assessments and workshops. The report represents a synthesis of material generated through this process, and is intended to stimulate thought and further analysis on the critical topics discussed herein.

Each month, approximately 45,000 people die from violence, hunger, disease, and other effects of displacement as a result of war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The country is often said to be plagued by a 'resource curse.' During each period in history since its discovery by the West, the DRC has possessed the resources the world craves and the world has sought these without regard for the consequences to the Congolese people. The catastrophic consequences of Congo's history of natural resource exploitation are the direct and indirect death of millions of Congolese people. The current war in Congo is multi-causal in nature but explanations are often reduced to describing it as an ethic conflict based on objective grievance. Objective grievance such as inequality, ethnic tensions, land disputes, and lack of democracy do exist, but they are neither necessary nor sufficient to explain the cause of the violent conflict, and more importantly, they fall short in explaining why this conflict has continued for years. The reality is the conflict is an economic war in which the trade of conflict minerals, gold and the 3Ts (tin, tantalum, tungsten), is directly linked to the financial sustainability of the groups fighting …

This book focuses on the lineage of America`s production reactors, those three at Hanford and their descendants, the reactors behind America`s nuclear weapons. The work will take only occasional sideways glances at the collateral lines of descent, the reactor cousins designed for experimental purposes, ship propulsion, and electric power generation. Over the decades from 1942 through 1992, fourteen American production reactors made enough plutonium to fuel a formidable arsenal of more than twenty thousand weapons. In the last years of that period, planners, nuclear engineers, and managers struggled over designs for the next generation of production reactors. The story of fourteen individual machines and of the planning effort to replace them might appear relatively narrow. Yet these machines lay at the heart of the nation`s nuclear weapons complex. The story of these machines is the story of arming the winning weapon, supplying the nuclear arms race. This book is intended to capture the history of the first fourteen production reactors, and associated design work, in the face of the end of the Cold War.

This report is a review of open literature concerning threats including sabotage and theft related to fissile material transport in Japan. It is intended to aid Japanese officials in the development of a design basis threat. This threat includes the external threats of the terrorist, criminal, and extremist, and the insider threats of the disgruntled employee, the employee forced into cooperation via coercion, the psychotic employee, and the criminal employee. Examination of the external terrorist threat considers Japanese demographics, known terrorist groups in Japan, and the international relations of Japan. Demographically, Japan has a relatively homogenous population, both ethnically and religiously. Japan is a relatively peaceful nation, but its history illustrates that it is not immune to terrorism. It has a history of domestic terrorism and the open literature points to the Red Army, Aum Shinrikyo, Chukaku-Ha, and Seikijuku. Japan supports the United States in its war on terrorism and in Iraq, which may make Japan a target for both international and domestic terrorists. Crime appears to remain low in Japan; however sources note that the foreign crime rate is increasing as the number of foreign nationals in the country increases. Antinuclear groups' recent foci have been nuclear reprocessing technology, …

This is an occasional publication of essays on the topics of nuclear, chemical, biological, and missile proliferation. The views represented are those of the author`s. Essay topics include: Nuclear Proliferation: Myth and Reality; Problems of Enforcing Compliance with Arms Control Agreements; The Unreliability of the Russian Officer Corps: Reluctant Domestic Warriors; and Russia`s Nuclear Legacy.

The background of conventional energy management and use relative to public policy is sketched. Events which threaten to overtake our lingering social, economic, and political impressions relative to energy are examined. How current social trends may be taking us in unfamiliar energy policy directions, particularly involving the more-advanced and alternative energy options now under consideration, are investigated. It is argued that the emerging social consensus, which will ultimately define national energy policy, increasingly favors a transition from conventional to renewable energy sources. 41 references.

To better understand insurgent activities and asymmetric warfare, a social adaptive model for modeling multiple insurgent groups attacking multiple military and civilian targets is proposed and investigated. This report presents a pilot study using the particle swarm modeling, a widely used non-linear optimal tool to model the emergence of insurgency campaign. The objective of this research is to apply the particle swarm metaphor as a model of insurgent social adaptation for the dynamically changing environment and to provide insight and understanding of insurgency warfare. Our results show that unified leadership, strategic planning, and effective communication between insurgent groups are not the necessary requirements for insurgents to efficiently attain their objective.

This document is one of a three volume set. This document, BNL 52202, it titled, ``US Statutes of General Interest to Safeguards and Security Officers``, and is intended for use by officers.

There is no doubt that al-Qaida and its affiliates have displayed, and continue to display, an acute interest in attacking targets that are considered to be important components of the infrastructure of the United States. What has not thus far been carried out, however, is an in-depth examination of the basic nature, historical evolution, and present scope of the organization's objectives that might help government personnel develop sound policy recommendations and analytical indicators to assist in detecting and interdicting plots of this nature. This study was completed with the financial support of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, through a project sponsored by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate. It is specifically intended to increase counterterrorism analysts understanding of certain features of al-Qaida's strategy and operations in order to facilitate the anticipation and prevention of attacks directed against our most critical infrastructures. The procedure adopted herein has involved consulting a wide variety of source materials that bear on the topic, ranging from sacred religious texts and historical accounts to al-Qaida-linked materials and the firsthand testimony of captured members of the group. It has also intentionally combined multiple approaches, including exploring the more esoteric religion-historical referents that have …

The Symposium was organized by the Energy Research Institute of the State Economic Commission of China, and the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory and Johns Hopkins University from the United States. It was held at the Johns Hopkins University Nanjing Center in late June 1988. It was attended by about 15 Chinese and an equal number of US experts on various topics related to energy demand and supply. Each presenter is one of the best observers of the energy situation in their field. A Chinese and US speaker presented papers on each topic. In all, about 30 papers were presented over a period of two and one half days. Each paper was translated into English and Chinese. The Chinese papers provide an excellent overview of the emerging energy demand and supply situation in China and the obstacles the Chinese planners face in managing the expected increase in demand for energy. These are matched by papers that discuss the energy situation in the US and worldwide, and the implications of the changes in the world energy situation on both countries. The papers in Part 1 provide historical background and discuss future directions. The papers in Part 2 focus on the historical development of …

Utah is home to oil shale resources containing roughly 1.3 trillion barrels of oil equivalent and our nation’s richest oil sands resources. If economically feasible and environmentally responsible means of tapping these resources can be developed, these resources could provide a safe and stable domestic energy source for decades to come. In Utah, oil shale and oil sands resources underlay a patchwork of federal, state, private, and tribal lands that are subject to different regulatory schemes and conflicting management objectives. Evaluating the development potential of Utah’s oil shale and oil sands resources requires an understanding of jurisdictional issues and the challenges they present to deployment and efficient utilization of emerging technologies. The jurisdictional patchwork and divergent management requirements inhibit efficient, economic, and environmentally sustainable development. This report examines these barriers to resource development, methods of obtaining access to landlocked resources, and options for consolidating resource ownership. This report also examines recent legislative efforts to wrest control of western public lands from the federal government. If successful, these efforts could dramatically reshape resource control and access, though these efforts appear to fall far short of their stated goals. The unintended consequences of adversarial approaches to obtaining resource access may outweigh their …

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This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national and international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.

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The Ninth National Conference on Undergraduate Research (NCUR 95) was held at Union College in Schenectady, New York. This annual celebration of undergraduate scholarly activity continues to elicit strong nation-wide support and enthusiasm among both students and faculty. Attendance was nearly 1,650, which included 1,213 student oral and poster presenters. For the second year in a row, many student papers had to be rejected for presentation at NCUR due to conference size limitations. Thus, submitted papers for presentation at NCUR 95 were put through a careful review process before acceptance. Those students who have been selected to have their paper appear in these Proceedings have been through yet a second review process. As a consequence, their work has been judged to represent an impressive level of achievement at the undergraduate level. Volume 1 contains papers related to Arts and Humanities (52 papers), and Social and Behavioral Sciences (64 papers).

Among the key barriers to investment in energy efficiency improvements are uncertainties about attaining projected energy savings and apprehension about potential disputes over these savings. The fields of energy management and risk management are thus intertwined. While many technical methods have emerged to manage performance risks (e.g. building commissioning), financial risk transfer techniques are less developed in the energy management arena than in other more mature segments of the economy. Energy Savings Insurance (ESI) - formal insurance of predicted energy savings - is one method of transferring financial risks away from the facility owner or energy services contractor. ESI offers a number of significant advantages over other forms of financial risk transfer, e.g. savings guarantees or performance bonds. ESI providers manage risk via pre-construction design review as well as post-construction commissioning and measurement and verification of savings. We found that the two mos t common criticisms of ESI - excessive pricing and onerous exclusions - are not born out in practice. In fact, if properly applied, ESI can potentially reduce the net cost of energy savings projects by reducing the interest rates charged by lenders, and by increasing the level of savings through quality control. Debt service can also be …

The AMTEX Partnership is a path-finding research and development collaboration among the US Department of Energy, the contract operators of its national laboratories, and research, education, technology transfer (RETT) consortia representing the integrated textile industry. The goal of AMTEX is to strengthen the competitiveness of the US textile industry. The complex nature of the collaboration requires consistent and reliable policy direction. The policies, stated in the form of a Mission, Vision, and Key Principles have remained largely unchanged since the inception of AMTEX in March of 1993. The policies define the primary roles and public accountabilities of the AMTEX participants whether in government, industry, or federal research laboratories. The organizational structure and procedures of AMTEX have evolved as better ways were found to implement and fulfill the intent of the Mission, Vision, and Key Principles. This document describes the policies and procedures of the AMTEX Partnership{trademark} as approved by the AMTEX Operating Committee on July 20, 1995. It supersedes all previous AMTEX policies and procedures.

This report makes available and archives the background scientific data and related information collected for an ethnographic study of selected areas on the islands of Hawaii and Maui. The task was undertaken during preparation of an environmental impact statement for Phases 3 and 4 of the Hawaii Geothermal Project (HGP) as defined by the state of Hawaii in its April 1989 proposal to Congress. Since the state of Hawaii is no longer pursuing or planning to pursue the HGP, DOE considers the project to be terminated. Information is included on the ethnohistory of Puna and southeast Maui; ethnographic fieldwork comparing Puna and southeast Maui; and Pele beliefs, customs, and practices.

This report contains English-translated abstracts of important Chinese-language literature concerning global climate change for the years 1995-1998. This body of literature includes the topics of adaptation, ancient climate change, climate variation, the East Asia monsoon, historical climate change, impacts, modeling, and radiation and trace-gas emissions. In addition to the biological citations and abstracts translated into English, this report presents the original citations and abstracts in Chinese. Author and title indexes are included to assist the reader in locating abstracts of particular interest.

The US consumption of crude oil resources has been a steadily growing indicator of the vitality and strength of the US economy. At the same time import diversity has also been a rapidly developing dimension of the import picture. In the early 1970`s, embargoes of crude oil from Organization of Producing and Exporting Countries (OPEC) created economic and political havoc due to a significant lack of diversity and a unique set of economic, political and domestic regulatory circumstances. The continued rise of imports has again led to concerns over the security of our crude oil resource but threats to this system must be considered in light of the diversity and current setting of imported oil. This report develops several important issues concerning vulnerability to the disruption of oil imports: (1) The Middle East is not the major supplier of oil to the United States, (2) The US is not vulnerable to having its entire import stream disrupted, (3) Even in stable countries, there exist vulnerabilities to disruption of the export stream of oil, (4) Vulnerability reduction requires a focus on international solutions, and (5) DOE program and policy development must reflect the requirements of the diverse supply. Does this increasing …

This document is one of a three report set, BNL 52201 contains detailed information for use by executives. BNL 52202 is titled, U.S. Statutes of General Interest to Safeguards and Security Officers, and contains less detail than BNL 52201. It is intended for use by officers. BNL 52203 is titled, U.S.Statutes for Enforcement by Security Inspectors, and only contains statutes to be applied by uniformed security inspectors. These are a newly updated version of a set of documents of similar titles published in September 1988, which were an updated version of an original set of documents published in November 1983.

This is the first of a two part discussion the purpose of which is to demonstrate that a frankly structural, or network, approach to the analysis of community decision-making allows an observer to anticipate and manage community response to specific policies. Here I am concerned with anticipating community response. In part two (Burt, 1978), I am concerned with conflict resolution strategies. The specific policy used as illustration is siting nuclear power facilities. Published accounts of siting nuclear facilities are used to identify basic social parameters of the nuclear power issue as a community conflict. Changes in the form and content of relations in the network among opponents and proponents of a facility are described. Subsequently, the description is used to specify a causal model of the manner in which conflict escalation is promoted or inhibited by the characteristics and leadership structure of a community in which a nuclear facility is proposed. Hypotheses are derived predicting what types of communities can be expected to become embroiled in conflict and the process that conflict escalation will follow.