In this work, we focus on enhancing the efficacy of predictive modeling in operational management decision making in two different settings: Essay 1 focuses on demand forecasting for the companies and the second study utilizes longitudinal data to analyze the illicit drug seizure and overdose deaths in the United States. In Essay 1, we utilize an operational system (newsvendor model) to evaluate the forecast method outcome and provide guidelines for forecast method (the exponential smoothing model) performance assessment and judgmental adjustments. To assess the forecast outcome, we consider not only the common forecast error minimization approach but also the profit maximization at the end of the forecast horizon. Including profit in our assessment enables us to determine if error minimization always results in maximum profit. We also look at the different levels of profit margin to analyze their impact on the forecasting method performance. Our study also investigates how different demand patterns influence maximizing the forecasting method performance. Our study shows that the exponential smoothing model family has a better performance in high-profit products, and the rate of decrease in performance versus demand uncertainty is higher in a stationary demand environment.In the second essay, we focus on illicit drug overdose …

This manuscript includes an investigation of decision making in alternative modes of transportation in order to understand consumers' decision in different contexts. In essay 1 of this study, the motives for participation in situated ridesharing is investigated. The study proposes a theoretical model that includes economic benefits, time benefits, transportation anxiety, trust, and reciprocity either as direct antecedents of ridesharing participation intention, or mediated through attitude towards ridesharing. Essay 2 of this study, focuses on self-driving vehicles as one of the recent innovations in transportation industry. Using a survey approach, the study develops a conceptual model of consumers' anticipated motives. Both essays use partial least square- structural equation modeling for assessing the proposed theoretical models.